Can Ireland fix its relationship with Trump?

Would Donald Trump invite Irish politicians to the White House for the traditional St. Patrick’s Day visit this year? It’s a question that has been asked many times in Ireland in the past few weeks.

It’s a tradition which began in 1952 but in the decades since it has grown in stature to become the most important Irish diplomatic moment of the year.

With the invitation normally extended by the second week of February and no sign of any offer arriving, it began to look increasingly likely this was going to be a rather pointed snub by the Trump administration. But to the relief of Taoiseach Micheál Martin and his staff, the longed-for letter arrived at the last minute on February 27.

But while Irish politicians can allow themselves a sigh of relief that they haven’t been very publicly left out in the cold, this year promises to be both the most important, and the most difficult, encounter between the leaders of the two countries in decades.

It’s fair to say that Ireland’s traditionally smooth diplomatic relationship with America has looked rather ragged of late.

The Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition fully swallowed the pre-election hype that last November would bring a Kamala Harris victory and Trump was treated as little more than an amusing afterthought. Four years ago, Simon Harris, now leader of Fine Gael, referred to Trump as “an awful gowl.” Ahead of the election he then approvingly posted a picture of a Kamala Harris campaign baseball cap.

Harris has since tried to walk back on those two blunders and rather improbably insisted that Trump would have taken the “gowl” comment “in the humor in which it was meant.” But clumsy personal mistakes aside, the political gulf between Irish and American leaders has never been wider.

The first indications that Ireland might be marked for a spot on the American naughty step came when J.D. Vance wrote to the Irish ambassador in Washington to express his grave concerns over the Irish Speech Bill.

Since then, things have gone from bad to worse. Events since October 7 have seen the two countries diverge wildly. While America remains Israel’s staunchest ally, Ireland is one of its harshest critics and its politicians, from the president down, have been quick to condemn the country. This culminated in Ireland breaking with EU protocol and recognzsing the state of Palestine, a decision which ultimately led to the recent closure and withdrawal of the Israeli embassy from Dublin. The war of words between Dublin and Jerusalem has become increasingly bitter and shows no signs of abating as diplomatic relations reach an unprecedented low.

It raised eyebrows that at the same time as America ceased all funding to UNRWA, Simon Harris, in his role as Foreign Minister, announced that Ireland would donate a further €20 million to the organization “to ensure that there is a much needed humanitarian surge into Gaza.”

There was some sign of detente last month when the Irish government pressed pause on a Bill which would have criminalized any Irish company working with any firm operating in the Occupied Territories, a move that infuriated Ireland’s many pro-Palestinian politicians who accused the government of giving in to American demands.

In truth, that was simply good politics. But the opposition has now increased their calls for Martin to turn down Trump’s invitation to Washington and insisted that if he must go, then he must raise the issue of Gaza and Ukraine as the two main priorities of the meeting.

That would be a calamitous approach to take with a President who has already demonstrated how bullish he is on both issues. Things reached rather farcical levels two weeks ago when Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald rather grandly — and entirely presumptuously — announced that she would not be going to Washington. The fact that she hadn’t actually been invited was quickly raised but in the febrile and frankly absurd Irish political mood at the moment, it was the gesture that counted.

Tensions ahead of the visit were further heightened following Trump and Zelensky’s astonishing verbal brawl in the Oval Office. Within an hour of that meeting, Simon Harris posted, “we stand with Ukraine. Slava Ukraine!” which won’t have helped Martin in advance of next week.

The Taoiseach, as bad luck would have it, was scheduled to appear on Ireland’s biggest TV program, The Late Late Show the same night as the Trump-Zelensky bust up but he handled himself as diplomatically as could be expected. That’s more than can be said for his Tanaiste, Simon Harris, who two days later announced a new aid package for Ukraine. 

To further complicate matters, Harris had a phone call with US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio last Monday, which led to both men contradicting each other about what they discussed.

Martin is due to meet J.D. Vance for breakfast next Wednesday before meeting Trump in the Oval Office for the traditional presentation of the shamrock and further talks.

He would be well advised to steer away from the foreign policy issues on which the two countries are so opposed, and focus instead on the matter most crucial to the Irish economy — trade between the two countries and the vital Foreign Direct Investment which comes from American companies based in Ireland.

It promises to be an interesting meeting but every Irish person will be hoping it’s not as interesting as the one Trump had with the Ukrainian leader.

This is a massive test for Irish diplomacy and one which could have huge significance for the future of the country.