California’s Prop 50 passed because grifters were scared of losing their grift

While it’s premature for a full autopsy of the No on Prop 50 campaign, the opposition clearly faced structural hurdles that went well beyond Governor Gavin Newsom’s thinly veiled presidential ambitions. The pundits are quick to make it a referendum on President Donald Trump, but upon deeper inspection, we’re seeing big government going all in to retain power behind the Sierra Curtain. The grifters are scared of losing their grift

The progressive left rallied effectively to boost Newsom’s ego-play because its core supporters, especially government unions and allied special interest, depend on taxpayer resources to sustain their influence, giving them strong incentives to mobilize. Watching DoGE cuts slash welfare programs, housing subsidies, federal educational grants and infrastructure dollars cease or go to red states was just too much to bear for the blue staters.  

By contrast, the center-right coalition’s challenges stem from decades of neglecting local political infrastructure while fixating on high-profile exodus narratives from the state. Many would rather stay home and complain about the system and lose than get in the game. While unions and progressive special interests can line people up and scour the neighborhoods for loose ballots to be cast.

Progressive dominance in legislative battles over the past two decades has made Republicans largely irrelevant in Sacramento, deterring out-of-state donors from investing in what appear to be long-shot defenses of a handful of congressional seats. Their dollars stretch further in red states with lower barriers to impact. And conservatives and political moderates have given up on the beautiful climate in California and made a permanent change by voting with their feet. The once reliable votes are stacking their fortunes in echo chambers while those who stay and battle it out wonder if the state can be golden again. 

So, the immediate commentary is going to be focused on the funding shortages and inability for formerly prolific fundraisers, like ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy who promised to raise $100 million and fell well short. While that’s an easy target, it misses the point. 

The lack of funds was not the reason the No on Prop 50 teams lost. What the campaign truly lacked was a unifying, charismatic voice like former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. His disdain for Trump, combined with his commonsense independence and once-in-a-generation celebrity appeal, could have supercharged opposition messaging through videos, posters and mailers.

Newsom’s victory didn’t prevail on the merits or even unlimited funds alone. He was able to puppeteer the legislative support he needed, stifle litigation on the merits in the courts and remind other politicos dependent upon the state’s good graces that any commentary contrary to his wishes was met with pain. We saw it during the 2021 recall and he still had a lot of people with their head on a swivel after that adventure, In the end, Newsom didn’t have to make that much of a sell when he knew that the opposition campaign was splintered. So we watched him filibuster all he wanted while the center-right faltered by failing to articulate a crisp, compelling alternative vision for fair redistricting process. 

What the people needed was a legitimate hero who could move the needle. Instead, California’s last action hero mailed it in.

Rather than show up for prime time and throw everything he had to protect his legacy of the independent redistricting commission, the Governator kept his activism to wearing a provocative t-shirt several weeks ago followed by a few token guest appearances on television with some light talk on opposing Prop 50. And that’s it. Rather than go all out and battle the man who has besmirched everything he fought for while he toured Sacramento 15 years ago, he retreated to the green room. The temporary changes in Congressional lines we were promised will be made permanent.  

Will there be lawsuits on processes and the role of federal law? Yes, the opposition to Prop 50 has those ready to drop. There is going to be some panic as a handful of radically gerrymandered Congressional seats are heading into an unfair fight for 2026. Who know how that will all shake out for California, the state that is set to lose at least 3 seats in the 2030 reapportionment. And for the several red states that are watching a leftist takeover of California and New York City, it’s likely we’ll have another couple dozen Republican seats carved up before the end of the year, negating anything that Newsom and his cronies thought they were accomplishing. 

Newsom won this battle, but we all lost the war.