Bill’s shattered Kristol ball

Bill Kristol suggested that to get rid of Trump Republicans, it might be necessary for anti-Trumpers to be “with the Democrats for a while.”

In a chat with Politico this weekend, the Weekly Standard founder proposed a Gretchen Whitmer-Abigail Spanberger ticket, in what would be a perfect combination of TikTok mom-schmaltz and Beltway hackery.

Luckily, though, Kristol’s prediction record is — to put it nicely — lacking.

Let’s start in 2008. Kristol was a huge proponent of then-Alaska governor Sarah Palin for John McCain’s vice presidential pick, saying, “Go for the gold here with Sarah Palin.” McCain and Palin lost by 10 million votes and received only 173 electoral votes to Obama and Biden’s 365.

It’s not like Kristol was just a decade too early, either. Palin ran for Alaska’s congressional seat twice in 2022 — a special election and the midterm — and lost both, handing Alaska’s House delegation to the Democrats for the first time since 1973.

Jumping forward to the 2012 presidential election, Kristol suggested that Obama kick Biden off the ticket and bring Hillary Clinton on board for his vice presidential nominee. Needless to say, Obama (wisely) did not listen to the commentator. This prediction aged even more poorly than Palin, because Clinton’s unpopularity is arguably the reason that Kristol’s greatest foe — Donald Trump — made it into the White House a few years later.

Speaking of 2016, Kristol couldn’t help but make a risky bet in that fateful year as well. After it became clear that Trump was going to win the nomination, he sought out a Republican to run as a third party — a plan which always works well in American politics. His choice? David French, then at the National Review. French ultimately opted not to jump on the 2016 presidential bandwagon, a sensible decision given the headwinds, even if Kristol was not ready to give up yet.

Come 2020, in a year that Trump was seeking reelection as the incumbent president, Kristol was still floating options to boot him from office. Candidates from Jeff Flake and John Kasich to Charlie Baker and Ben Sasse arose — and by 2019 Kristol was speaking tentatively about Bill Weld’s chances. Trump lost, but it was a case of self destruction.

With a track record like that, count Cockburn skeptical that Kristol’s 2024 suggestions will make it off the runway.

Maybe we can find some solace in the fact that Whitmer and Spanberger were the candidates appearing in Bill’s Kristol ball.