Will AOC miss her 2024 moment?

There are moments in history when politicians have to seize an opportunity or watch it pass them by, never to be seen again. We all know the examples. Chris Christie has nightmares about them. But we may be witnessing one of those right now in the Democratic Party, for one of its youngest voices.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be missing her moment.

I know that this is the earliest cycle that AOC could potentially even run for president. But the uniquely fragile status of the leader of her party leaves an opening that is clear as day: to upend the hidebound octogenarians of the Democratic elite with a brash, social-media friendly progressive coalition that speaks to the party as it is, not as the establishment imagines it to be. 

Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen lays out the reality of Joe Biden’s weakness in full this week — and his unique vulnerability to a younger person of color as a challenger:

“An ambitious progressive with similar skill sets could use a Biden challenge to become a national figure. Such a person would presumably raise tens of millions in small donations, giving them control over a powerful progressive fundraising base. Marry that with charisma and an ability to manipulate modern modes of communication, such as Twitter, and such a person could quickly acquire a notable following.

“A significantly younger challenger could also subtly play on Biden’s biggest weakness: his age. Polls regularly show large majorities of Americans are worried that the eighty-year-old might be too old for the job. Young Democrats especially want someone new. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in late January found that only 23 percent of Democrats aged eighteen to forty-four want him to run again. A candidate in their thirties or forties wouldn’t even have to mention the issue for it to arise naturally in voters’ minds.“

Progressives will naturally oppose this idea. AOC is just thirty-three, you might say — she could have a long career in politics, rise to the Senate in New York, she could run for president in 2068 and still be younger than Joe Biden today. All this is true. They say she should wait her turn.

But there are also the political winds that shift in ways we might not expect. The form of progressivism espoused by AOC might find itself out of touch in the future. The neoliberal establishment of her party might never be so decrepit and unfashionable. And time brings more players to the game — the bench might fill itself out in ways that push AOC to the sidelines.

No one wants to live out the end of their days wandering in the wilderness of National Public Radio. You only get to be the bright new thing for so long. Barack Obama recognized that — and it’s why he didn’t wait for his turn. He seized his moment.

Joe Biden is a profoundly weak incumbent. He deserves a challenger from the progressive wing of his party who will make clear how weak he is. The worst such a campaign could do is push Joe further to the left and avoid a Jeff Zients-led second term. The best it could do is take over the Democratic Party and represent the true progressivism it espouses with a diverse coalition that understands the priorities of Americans younger than Joe Biden. And even if it fails in such an endeavor, AOC would raise more money, attract more media attention and rocket up the charts as the clear heir apparent — surpassing the mediocre likes of Kamala and Gavin and positioning herself for 2028.

Taking on a man who is older than cat litter — how could AOC fail? Only by failing to recognize the moment she could seize until it’s too late.