In the same building where he once descended down a golden elevator and embarked on a campaign that would forever change American politics, this morning Donald Trump lumbered up to the mic in New York City to launch napalm at all his enemies, particularly Judge Juan Merchan, Alvin Bragg and Michael Cohen — who he didn’t mention by name, other than calling him a “sleazebag” and saying that he didn’t qualify as a “fixer.”
The idea of a gag order for this man is so ridiculous, I love that they even tried to do it. It was classic Trump: meandering, angry, darkly comic, rhetorical guns blasting away at everyone around him, golden hair blown out and wearing a bright crimson tie as wide as his head. The unprecedented nature of this moment is not lost on him, and the former president seemed stretched thin, exhausted after the long days in the courtroom. But the general mood was stubborn resolve in the face of his conviction, which he decried as a “scam” run by a judge who was a “tyrant.” He promised to fight on — “I’m wired in such a way,” Trump said. And he very obviously is.
So the thing that we all expected to happen, happened. There are all manner of predictions about the reactions to the verdict in Trump’s trial, but these predictions are really baseless, given the unprecedented nature of both the case and the political moment. But one thing seems absolutely clear: the Republican Party doesn’t need to spend anything on getting out the vote in 2024. They’ve got a built-in advantage that rivals and could exceed the post-Dobbs motivation for the Democratic side in 2022. Even Nikki Haley voters and former anti-Trump Republicans are going to be itching to go to the ballot box to fire back the only way they can. The momentum boost that Judge Merchan just gave the GOP is more than a billion-dollar ad campaign.
You’re waiting for the “but” and here it is: this is not an election that will be decided by Republican voters. It will be decided by Independents, and that is where we will have to wait for the political verdict that matters. For that, the Republicans are going to have to work to win an argument, one where the overwhelming force of the media will be on one side. They’ll have the resources to do it: Republican megadonors are utterly unfazed by this result, the NRSC had its biggest online donation day in history, and Trump had his own gigantic small-dollar donation boom.
The problem for Democrats in arguing the case to Independents is that it’s a total mess of a case. It’s been branded a hush-money trial, but it isn’t — it’s a business expense categorization trial, claimed as a campaign finance matter. This just doesn’t fly. It sounds like a rinky-dink case to the average voter. The Jack Smith documents case makes the most sense to people, on a practical level. But this one seems like the weakest attempt to take out Trump because it is. The Hillary Clinton campaign had to pay $113,000 in fines to the Federal Election Commission because they miscategorized their spending on the Steele Dossier — and that was a publicly filed claim with the government, not a behind the scenes accounting spreadsheet.
This moment is a hinge point for the United States. There is no question about it. The success or failure of the Trump 2024 campaign could redefine American politics or allow this type of lawfare utter vindication, proving that if you shop for the right jurisdiction with the right partisan judge, you can get anyone convicted, even a former president. It is an astounding moment, depressing in a way, but also good, in the same way the diagnosis of cancer or a brain tumor can be good. You know how bad it is. You know how awful it can be. But you also know what it will take to get through the bad to the good. That’s what 2024 may turn out to be: chemotherapy for a nation that needs it.
