The myth of a vibes election

I’ve seen it repeated numerous times, most recently by our friends over at the Free Press: 2024 is a “vibes election.” The definition of this is clumsily characterized, but essentially it means (as the FP says) that the personalities matter more than the policies. Who would you like to have a beer with, not who would you prefer to handle the very urgent need to pass Social Security Disability Insurance reform.

This contention, made by many intelligent people, is absolute shite. The 2024 election has been one of the most stable elections of the modern era in terms of voter priorities, with the top three issues — the economy, immigration and security — locked in for more than a year. The vibes election concept exists in a context where these issues are not dominant in people’s minds, where they have the luxury of picking Bill Clinton over Bob Dole or Barack Obama over Mitt Romney just because they like the guy more than his opponent, not because of some clear and present danger.

At no point in the history of polling has immigration mattered more as a sustained issue to voters than it does now, according to Gallup. The degree to which Americans are concerned about it and the collapse of a secure border under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris is incomparable. You don’t care much about who you would prefer to have a beer with when you think your life and livelihood are on the line.

2024 does not present a malleable election where people are judged on the vagaries of their personalities. Instead, the judgment around these candidates is set in stone: by this point, you either like Donald Trump or you don’t, you either like Kamala Harris or you don’t. You aren’t going to warm up to the other side. That slim portion of the electorate that is movable is motivated by critical events, not zesty zingers.

The Trump-Vance ticket has to refocus on actually running against Kamala Harris, or it risks falling into the trap of vibes-based arguments that Democrats would prefer. The fundamentals in this race have never shifted — not through the debate collapse of the president, the attempted assassination of a former president and the elevation of a new candidate without anything more than a couple of tweets. The poll numbers barely budge, because the overwhelming majority of the electorate understands this.

Kamala Harris is betting this is a vibes election. But isn’t it possible voters care about a lot more than vibes?