Tonight, Donald Trump and Joe Biden face each other in the first of two presidential debates. With about 10 percent of the electorate undecided, the debate — the first between a current and a former president — could change the momentum of the race.
Both candidates want to debate. Trump thinks he can trounce the rival he has often dubbed “Sleepy Joe.” Biden, a doddery octogenarian, urgently needs to persuade voters he is not too frail for office.
Tonight’s debate helps cement the choice as Biden or Trump
Debating against a much more dynamic candidate might seem like a risk for Biden. But in fact, it’s a good idea. Trump is ahead in the polls, and the perception is that the president is weak. Biden has to change the narrative, and a televised showdown gives him the opportunity.
Both parties are worried. And, paradoxically, they are both worried about Biden’s performance. The Democrats’ concern is that the public will see Biden’s mental and physical decline. The Republicans, having spent years focusing on Biden’s senility, worry Americans will come away with an improved view of the president’s health, as they did after his State of the Union address in March.
The Republicans are so alarmed by this that they have spent the run-up to the event bigging up Biden’s competency. Last week, for example, Trump described Biden as a “worthy debater” and said he was the clear winner in the long-forgotten vice-presidential debate of 2012. The Republicans have even tried to mitigate the effects of a better-than-expected Biden performance by circulating the baseless rumor that the president is on performance-enhancing drugs.
For Biden, a president who has been ineffective at communicating his achievements (very low unemployment, record job creation, and big wage rises for the lowest earners) the debate provides that opportunity. Most importantly, he can powerfully restate his core argument: that he is not Donald Trump.
The conditions of the debates, agreed by both camps, favor Biden. There will be no live audience (which would suit Trump’s theatricality) and microphones will be turned off at the end of candidates’ allotted time to avoid a repeat of the rancorous first debate of 2020, when Trump showed he is the greater heckler. The debates will also be hosted by mainstream networks — CNN and ABC. Biden even won the coin toss: he chose the right-hand podium as seen on the camera, because research suggests viewers are more drawn to that side of the screen.
The timing of the first debate also helps the Democrats: June 27 is unusually early, given the election is the first week of November. Biden, who is more threatened by Independents, needs undecided voters to focus on the election as a two-horse race. Tonight’s debate, which takes place without the leading Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., helps cement the choice as Biden or Trump.
Biden will need to show vigor, and present convincing arguments that deflect criticism of his handling of immigration and inflation. How he performs on stage will have a big effect on the Democrats’ morale. In a campaign that needs more energy, morale is crucial for Biden, his staff, and the activists trying to make his case on the phone and on the doorstep.
Biden has got the debate he wanted. It’s up to him to deliver.
This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.
