nate silver

Nate Silver on how to predict the 2024 election

Listen & Subscribe

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America’s most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver’s latest book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village.

Nate joins Freddy on Americano to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump.

About the show

US politics and analysis, delivering in-depth discussions with the best American pundits. Presented by Freddy Gray.

More from The District

  • What are the LA riots about?
    Freddy Gray and Daniel McCarthy discuss the LA riots, why they are different to the protests on Capitol Hill and how Trump will respond.
  • Left-wing violence is being normalized
    In the July edition of The Spectator, author and anthropologist Max Horder argues the US is experiencing a change in its psyche, and left-wing violence is being normalized. He joins Freddy Gray on the Americano podcast to discuss the various examples attached to this, and what the dereliction of democratic disagreement means for us all.
  • Did the swamp drain Elon Musk?
    Elon Musk and President Donald Trump have had a very public falling out. Musk, whose time running the Department of Government Efficiency (DoGE) came to an end last month, publicly criticized Trump’s spending bill (the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”). The row then erupted onto social media with Trump expressing his disappointment with Musk, Musk … Read more
  • blm
    America’s white guilt hangover
    From the decline of meritocracy to the rise of anti-Western ideology, author Heather Mac Donald joins Freddy Gray to discuss race, merit, and victim hierarchy. Why is the West so desperate to self-cancel? And is now a moment of reckoning considering we’re five years on from the BLM protests?
  • sam altman
    What does Sam Altman want?
    Freddy Gray speaks to writer and author Karen Hao, whose new book Empire of AI looks at a new, ominous age of empire with OpenAI. On the podcast they discuss the impacts of artificial intelligence on society and democracy and how OpenAI founder Sam Altman has become a controversial figure.