The top election takeaways from Trump’s beatdown

President Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States after a historic political comeback and complete annihilation of his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris called Trump to concede this afternoon after failing to appear at the campaign’s planned victory party at her alma mater, Howard University, in Washington, DC. Instead, she delivered her concession speech there this afternoon. More on that below the fold. Biden is also said to have called Trump to congratulate him and express his desire for a smooth transition. 

It was a relatively short night compared to most predictions, with Trump sealing victory a couple of hours after midnight (although the result seemed obvious by that point). Trump not only won the campaign’s preferred path of Sun Belt-plus-Pennsylvania, but he also took back Michigan and Wisconsin. Yes, the madman swept the seven swing states. Trump cited his decisive victory, plus predictions that Republicans will have a multiple seat majority in the Senate, as giving him a “mandate to lead” with his America First agenda. Decision Desk HQ also gives Republicans a 91 percent chance of keeping the House majority. 

A couple of top lines from Trump’s win: 

• Democrats got high on vibes and forgot the fundamentals. Harris was the vice president of a highly unpopular administration, a heavy majority of voters say the country is on the wrong track — and voters cited the economy and immigration as top issues. Harris might have been “brat” but she didn’t tell voters what she would do as president — particularly what she would do differently from Biden — and arguments about Trump’s personality and character defects were already tested in 2016. That attitude is even weaker when inflation has prices up more than 20 percent
• The RNC deserves a lot of credit for its election integrity program, which boasted hundreds of thousands of lawyers and volunteers. They notched several notable court victories ahead of Election Day (listed in Monday’s DC Diary) that ensured clarity over the rules and thus quick counting of votes. This was a far cry from the madness of 2020, even as turnout hit record highs
• Trump outsourced a lot of his ground game to third party groups, like Elon Musk’s America PAC and Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action. A lot of the GOP establishment was skeptical of this strategy, but it obviously paid off. These groups had tons of money and volunteers and focused mostly on turning out low- and mid- propensity voters, allowing the Trump campaign and RNC to make sure they were hammering the base
• Latinos and black voters moved significantly toward Trump. Latino voters swung twenty-five points toward Trump; he ended the night with 45 percent of the Latino vote. Trump nearly doubled his support with black voters. These groups were motivated enough by the economy and immigration to abandon any loyalty to the Democrats, and younger voters within these groups expressed some discomfort with the party’s shift to the left on cultural issues
• Turnout in urban city centers and among women voters was lower than expected this cycle, signaling that fears about Trump dismantling democracy and enacting a national abortion ban (contrary to his public statements) were not major motivating factors
• Young men — the ‘bro vote’ — were a big factor for Trump. He only lost men under thirty by two points to Harris after embarking on a male-dominated podcast tour. In Michigan, he outright won voters under the age of thirty. Some of Gen Z is very ‘woke,’ but plenty of them view being Trump supporters as the rebellious, countercultural move — think ‘sticking it to the man.’ Others reject the two party system entirely, embracing independent media and third-party candidates
• Trump significantly increased his vote share with Catholics, especially in the Rust Belt states. He won them overall by fourteen points, doubling his 2016 margin against Clinton. His advantage with white Catholics was even greater, hitting 60 percent support. Harris attempted to sway evangelical voters against Trump on issues of personal morality when she probably should have focused on the traditionally more politically liberal Catholics. Catholics make up about a quarter of the population in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and about 17 percent in Michigan. I’ll be writing more on the breakdown of religious voters this election cycle in this week’s edition of Culture Shock, so stay tuned

-Amber Duke

On our radar

UKRAINE FIRST The Biden White House is planning to send the last $6 billion remaining in aid to Ukraine ahead of Donald Trump taking over the presidency in January. Trump and his allies have signaled opposition to the current level of funding of Ukraine’s war with Russia. 

RFK PROMISES VACCINE ACCESS Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the Trump transition team who has promised to “Make America Healthy Again,” promised voters that he was not planning to “take vaccines away from anybody.” Instead, he said Americans should have access to more scientific studies surrounding vaccines so they can make more informed decisions. 

SMITH STALLED OUT Special counsel Jack Smith is reportedly in talks with the Department of Justice about how to wind down his cases against former president Donald Trump now that he was won the presidency. Trump had said he would fire Smith “in two seconds” if he returned to the White House. 

GOP performs well down the ballot 

President-elect Donald Trump completed what his allies are already billing as the most historic comeback of all time — but the 2024 elections provided Republicans with no shortage of good news in lesser-profile down ballot races.

There were some bright spots for Democrats, including in New York, where they defeated incumbent Representatives Marc Molinaro, Brandon Williams, and Anthony D’Esposito, in Maine, where Representative Jared Golden looks poised to hold on and in Maryland, where the state’s popular former Republican governor Larry Hogan couldn’t outrun Trump by enough in his Senate campaign against Angela Alsobrooks.

But virtually everywhere else you look, Republicans won.

The GOP looks poised to take the trifecta: the White House, House and Senate. Thanks to Trump’s strength, the party is poised to net more Senate seats than even the most optimistic party hacks could have predicted. While Eric Hovde looks likely to lose in Wisconsin and Rogers conceded in Michigan, Sam Brown is on the verge of a massive upset in Nevada. 

On the House side, even Republicans who were written off ended up winning outright: Representative Don Bacon outperformed Kamala Harris by almost double digits to hold onto his suburban Nebraska House seat, even though polling suggested he was a dead man walking. 

In other down ballot news, Democrats did flip the North Carolina lieutenant governor’s seat, which Mark Robinson vacated for his doomed gubernatorial campaign. Republicans flipped the lieutenant governor’s seat in deep-blue Vermont and the attorney general’s office in Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, Republicans flipped the Michigan House and in a final humiliation to Governor Tim Walz, Republicans ended the Democrats’ unified control of Minnesota by fighting to a tie in the state House.

Liberals did score several victories on abortion ballot measures, while Republicans defeated such measures in Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota. Republican allies defeated virtually every ballot measure that would have implemented ranked-choice voting.

While the results we know look better for Republicans than expected, they could see further gains cemented by the time we publish our next diary Friday. 

–Matthew Foldi

Harris concedes at Howard

Vice President Kamala Harris finally took the stage at her alma mater, Washington, DC’s Howard University — a day later than anticipated, to deliver a twelve-minute concession speech.

She walked out at 4:24 p.m., somewhat ironically, to the chorus of Beyoncé’s “Freedom”: “Freedom, freedom, I can’t lose / Freedom I can’t lose.”

“The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for — but hear me when I say that the light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting,” Harris said.

“I am so proud of the race we ran and the way we ran it,” Harris said. “We must accept the results of this election. Earlier today I spoke with President-elect Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I also told him that we will help him and his team with this transition and that we will engage in a peaceful transition of power.”

The vice president did however strike a defiant note.

“While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign,” she said. ”This is not a time to throw up our hands — this is a time to roll up our sleeves.”

The university’s quad was set to be the setting for her election night remarks yesterday, before thousands of students from America’s oldest HBCU. But it became apparent at around midnight that she would not be speaking — and attendees started peeling off in droves to get some rest before the following day’s classes.

–Matt McDonald

College students self-soothe post-election

After a long election night, I couldn’t wait to head to Georgetown University — where some of the nation’s most coddled, yet supposedly politically astute, folks get their degrees. Specifically, to the Self-Care Suite the university’s McCourt School of Public Policy had for the poor students to decompress.

The first words I heard when I got there: “Do you want some vegan nachos?” I did not accept the offer, but hot cocoa though? Yes please. I sat in the room for a while, trying not to look suspicious. I looked down glumly for three minutes. Eventually, a nice lady came to me and asked me how I was feeling. “Alright,” I said, sounding discouraged. She said nothing back, giving me a very understanding look. “Did you see that New York Post article, so embarrassing for them,” I overheard someone say behind me.

I then took one of the “Foldable Fortune Teller: Mindfulness” sheets and played with it for a while.The girl in front of me looked pensive; I mirrored her. I closed my eyes and then filled my sheet, which, the footnote informed me, came from a website called ChildTherapyGuide.com. While I was at it, I overheard some interesting commentary, as the students griped about their post-election concerns: access to abortion (in DC); gay friends in Ohio; whether government workers will be prevented from using the phrase “climate change.” The McCourt School is just a stone’s throw from Capitol Hill and a number of government departments where, you’d imagine, a number of its graduates hope to work one day. How will they cope?

–Juan P. Villasmil