The many unknowns of the Trump indictment

The first president to be impeached twice has become the first former president to be indicted once. Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday. It is at that point that the charges against him, relating to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, are expected to be unsealed.

In the almost twenty-four hours that have passed since the long-expected news of the indictment finally broke, much has gone as expected. Trump’s statement made the complaints you’d expect. Almost every high-profile Republican, including every 2024…

The many unknowns of the Trump indictment

The first president to be impeached twice has become the first former president to be indicted once. Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday. It is at that point that the charges against him, relating to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, are expected to be unsealed.

In the almost twenty-four hours that have passed since the long-expected news of the indictment finally broke, much has gone as expected. Trump’s statement made the complaints you’d expect. Almost every high-profile Republican, including every 2024 contender, has criticized Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg and his case against the former president (not that we know what it is yet, exactly). The White House has kept mum. Nancy Pelosi has tweeted something silly. So far, so predictable.

Even as we enter these unchartered waters, some seem to think events have now been set on a predictable, almost preordained, course: the GOP primary is now over before it began, claims one camp, predicting that Republicans rallying around Trump mean we are set for a 2020 rematch next November. For others, a guilty verdict is all but a foregone conclusion. Those on the left who make this claim see Trump’s crimes as self-evident. On the right, the biases of a New York jury are what make them so sure of the outcome.

The only honest response to much of this prognosticating is: not so fast. As I’ve argued before, Republican politicians siding with a former Republican president over probable charges that even the Washington Post editorial board thinks is a “poor test case for prosecuting a former president,” and in a process steered by a prosecutor who campaigned on going after Trump, doesn’t say as much as some seem to think about Trump’s hold over his party. Not that this indictment doesn’t dramatically change the dynamics of the 2024 Republican contest. But the task of DeSantis et al. is to paint Trump as a good guy who made a few mistakes and is being treated unfairly but whose time has passed — a Republican cause célèbre, rather than the president in waiting. That may seem like a tough job now, but fast-forward to whenever the indecent details of payments to a porn star are being litigated and it’ll look like less of a daunting task.

If that’s the politics, what about the law? At risk of sounding like a stickler for the details, again, we know very little about the case: the charges have not been made public and we don’t know what evidence has turned up in the years-long investigation into Trump. If Trump is charged with falsifying business records, Bragg’s team must demonstrate “intent to defraud” to make it a felony charge. That, lawyers say, is less of a slam dunk. One thing does seem fairly likely, however: that the a precedent has now been set. And that other prosecutors pursuing other, more serious cases, against Trump, may now feel a little less uneasy about moving forward.

Another dynamic adding to the uncertainty: the tactics pursued by both legal teams. Will Trump’s lawyers play for time or tackle the case head-on? Will Bragg be in a hurry? Will other cases against Trump take precedence? So many questions, and so many so sure they have the answers.

On our radar

Ivanka appreciates you Ivanka Trump took her time to respond to the news of her father’s indictment. When she finally surfaced, she did so with an Instagram post that read: “I love my father, and I love my country. Today, I am pained for both. I appreciate the voices across the political spectrum expressing support and concern.” Ivanka the unifier, your time has come.

Biden calls for WSJ reporter’s release Biden today called on Russia to release Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter detained this week. “Let him go,” said the president as he boarded a helicopter to leave the White House, adding that there were no plans to expel any Russian diplomats over the detention.

Nothing to see here, says Soros

As Alvin Bragg has closed in on Donald Trump in recent weeks, Republicans have pointed out that the Manhattan prosector is “Soros-backed.” Semafor’s Steve Clemons reached out to Soros for his “thoughts on [Trump supporters] linking you to this historic indictment of Donald Trump.” In his reply, Soros said: “As for Alvin Bragg, as a matter of fact I did not contribute to his campaign and I don’t know him. I think some on the right would rather focus on far-fetched conspiracy theories than on the serious charges against the former president.” Fair enough on the second point, but there’s nothing far-fetched or conspiratorial about calling Bragg Soros-backed. Soros gave $1 million to the Color of Change PAC which backed Bragg’s election. Soros’s son, Jonathan, gave directly to Bragg, as did his wife. And Soros has been a vocal supporter of progressive prosecutors like Bragg around the country. It may be a deflection for Republicans to talk about Bragg’s ties to Soros but it doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

– Oliver Wiseman

Gisele Fetterman’s humble-brag op-ed

Gisele Fetterman, wife of Pennsylvania’s US senator John, has written an op-ed for Elle magazine, of which Cockburn is naturally an avid reader. The essence of her piece is: “I am perfect the way I am — and how dare you criticize me. Also I’m a volunteer firefighter.”

John Fetterman, readers will recall, suffered a stroke last year during the Democratic primary for Senate against Conor Lamb. He won regardless, lining up a head-to-head with Republican candidate Dr. Oz. His one performance on the debate stage raised alarms, even from the mainstream media, over claims he was perfectly fine following his serious health scare and was ready to serve. A little more than a month after being sworn in as senator, Fetterman checked himself into Walter Reed Hospital for clinical depression. He is still there, and so far, has missed 83 percent of Senate roll call votes.

Gisele Fetterman is now putting the country on notice that her husband’s problems are not her problems. “I am not my husband’s career,” she writes. “A healthy, loving relationship is about supporting your partner’s dreams, not controlling them. I would never stop John from pursuing an ideal, just like he could never stop me — even if he wasn’t crazy about the idea at first, like when I told him I was going to be running into fires.”

Yes, Gisele did drive to Niagara Falls right after John checked into Walter Reed, but that was only to escape media trucks in front of their house (and to take glam photos for social media, apparently). Gisele “never wanted to be in the public eye; in fact, that’s the last thing [she’d] want.” Which is why she penned a lengthy op-ed about herself with a bio that’s so long there isn’t enough space to include all of her cute quirks (she’s a “hugger”) and accolades. She’s also so demure that her selfie-filled Instagram contains 6,588 photos, and she habitually poses for photos with John, who told Politico in 2021 that people prefer taking pictures of his wife.

Gisele Fetterman compares “the dehumanizing bullying” she’s received to what “Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama have faced for decades.” “They’re the same attacks leveled at Meghan Markle, Jada Pinkett Smith, and Jill Biden — my apparent competitors for ‘worst wife in America,’” she writes. Esteemed company.

–Cockburn