The Democrats’ John Fetterman problem

Democrats have a candidate problem. He’s called John Fetterman. As you may already know, the party’s candidate to fill the all-important Pennsylvania Senate seat that will be vacated by Pat Toomey suffered a stroke on the eve of the Democratic primary and then took an extended break from the campaign trail while he recovered.

While he was away from the limelight, Fetterman opened up a considerable polling lead over Mehmet Oz, who has frustrated Republicans with a rather low-energy and flat-footed pivot from the primary to the general. But the dynamics of the race have changed ever since Fetterman returned to the campaign trail. His public appearances have not been reassuring.

In the last few weeks, Fetterman has been doing more in-person events. And the more Democrats see of his performances, the more concerned they will be. Fetterman has been unsteady in the short speeches he has given. The impact of his stroke is, in short, unmistakable. His team limits his interactions with the press as much as they can.

The question of Fetterman’s health came to the fore last week, when his campaign rejected Oz’s offer of a debate. After Oz’s campaign didn’t hold back, offering to pay for additional medical personnel that might be required to facilitate a debate, Fetterman deflected by accusing his rival of mocking a stroke survivor. But the Fetterman campaign know that there is no hiding the health issue. In an interview with the Washington Post, Fetterman strategist Rebecca Katz said, “To be absolutely clear, the occasional issues he is having with auditory processing have no bearing on his ability to do the job as senator. John is healthy and fully capable of showing up and doing the work.”

Whatever the right tone for the Oz campaign may be on the subject, Fetterman will surely not be able to keep deflecting when it comes to the question of his recovery and fitness for office. It is an awkward thing to have to talk about, but too important — and too obvious an issue to voters — to ignore. And a debate between the two candidates is surely something that Pennsylvanians deserve to see, regardless of Fetterman’s health.

An editorial in yesterday’s Pittsburgh Post Gazette admonished Oz for the tone of his campaign’s approach to Fetterman’s recovery, but, more importantly, noted that Oz has “raised legitimate concerns. If Fetterman’s communication skills have not yet recovered sufficiently to effectively debate his opponent, many voters will have concerns about his ability to represent them effectively in Washington.”

This week, Pat Toomey has stepped up his attacks on Fetterman. “I wish him all the best in his recovery, but if he won’t debate Dr. Oz because he can’t debate, then he should just say so,” Mr. Toomey said. “He said the only lingering effect of the stroke is, and I quote, ‘Every now and then, I’m going to miss a word or mush two together.’ Well, if that’s all true, then why won’t he agree to debate Dr. Oz?”

At present, Fetterman still holds a handy lead over Oz (6.5 points according to the RCP average). But for how much longer? As more voters tune in to the race post-Labor Day, they will see a candidate who at least to the inexpert eye, appears to be on a long and difficult road to recovery and is either unwilling or incapable of debating his opponent. That hardly sounds like a recipe for success in one of country’s most competitive states.

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Desantis’s ad is a warning to Republicans

A new campaign ad for Ron DeSantis’s re-election is a far cry from the cringe-inducing “Top Gov” hit the Florida governor put out a few weeks ago. Trollish jokiness is out, a bread-and-butter focus on “results” (the ad’s title) is in. In the minute-long clip, a range of Floridians from all walks of life thank the governor for his achievements in office, with his handling of the pandemic top of the list.

The ad is a reminder that, even with the Florida governor’s talent for inserting himself into national culture war debates, he ultimately draws his strength from his record in office, and the approval of Florida voters. He won the 2018 gubernatorial race by a whisker and is now cruising to re-election. As I’ve argued before, success in office is the difference between DeSantis and his Democratic counterpart in California, Gavin Newsom.

For Republicans, the ad is an example of a refreshing return to the messages they think will serve them best in November after a summer centered on Donald Trump and bruising primary fights. But might those messages be losing their political potency? A “results” focused ad is, by definition, backwards looking, but DeSantis’s focus on the pandemic, lockdowns and school closures suggests that November 2022 might prove a much easier time for Democrats to fight an election than twelve months earlier. A large majority of voters may agree with Republicans when it comes to these important issue, but, with schools open and the pandemic increasingly a thing of the past, they just don’t loom as large as they did a year ago.

Can Biden and Truss find common ground?

Joe Biden offered his congratulations to newly appointed British Prime Minister Liz Truss in a phone call yesterday. According to the White House readout, “the leaders reaffirmed the special relationship between our countries” and discussed supporting Ukraine as well as the challenge posed by Russia, China and Iran.

With Britain in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis (the Bank of England predicts 13 percent inflation this quarter) and the UK stuck in a tricky Brexit standoff with the European Union about the Northern Ireland Protocol, Truss faces an unenviable in-tray. On Northern Ireland, there is no sign of Biden doing anything other than sticking to the lazy idea that British recklessness threatens the Good Friday Agreement. In truth, the EU’s inflexibility is a big part of the problem too. On other issues, Biden and Truss should find plenty of common ground. Truss will likely be as committed a supporter of Ukraine as her predecessor and is poised to formally declare China a threat to British national security for the first time.

Writing for the site, Freddy Gray suggests that Truss is “well-positioned to turn the burden of very low expectations into a boon. When countries are in the grip of a ‘doom spiral,’ as Britain is, a new leader can bring hope in unexpected ways. Truss is a different type of politician to May or Boris Johnson — she’s more of an authentic free-market liberal.” For center-right politicians watching around the world, that makes Truss a significant figure, and Britain an interesting test case.