Charleston, South Carolina

Welcome to Thunderdome, where the past three days in South Carolina have felt bizarre, for several reasons. A dominant incumbent is facing his solo challenger without any interest in demolishing her efforts in the primary contest. The atmosphere at Donald Trump’s Greenville town hall was one of grim resolve, far from the enthusiasms of 2020. And for the upstart Nikki Haley campaign, her events have been popular and packed with fans, but all operating from an assumption that she will inevitably lose. This is an incredibly odd election — where South Carolina was decisive in 2020, 2016 and 2008, now it feels like an afterthought. Criss-crossing the state to the tune of more than 500 miles doesn’t make a difference here: the Trump fans are subdued, and the Haley fans resistant. 

In Iowa and New Hampshire, handmade signs for Trump were everywhere. Here in South Carolina, they are non-existent. Perhaps this means something about Haley’s ability to creep up on Trump’s dominant lead — but the more likely reason is that Trump is not behaving as a normal presidential candidate. His rallies are few and far between. His engagement with voters, far greater than Joe Biden’s, still seems restrained. America is standing on the precipice of a campaign where no one actually campaigns — and the lackluster attention shows. 

Haley is unlikely to pull of the near impossible upset. But at least she’s behaving as if she’s a real candidate, with real events. In Beaufort, she emphasizes the real challenges faced by Republicans this cycle — winning women, winning with diverse and younger voters. Her case for nomination on that basis hasn’t gotten weaker. But Trump’s massive advantage has endured, with no one coming close to competing for the prize. As Jon Ward notes:

Haley’s case for staying in the race is not moralistic. True to her brand, she’s making a pragmatic argument that Trump is a fatally flawed candidate who presents a danger of handing the presidency to Democrats for another term.

“He’s going to be in a courtroom all of March, April, May and June. How in the world do you win a general election when these cases keep going and the judgments keep coming?” Haley said in an interview with the Associated Press.

On Saturday, Nikki Haley will likely go down to defeat, and by a significant margin. But the warnings she’s lodging about the future are impossible to deny. Trump’s struggles with women and independent voters are real. There is no plan to deal with that problem. And Trump’s insistence in the town hall in Greenville with Laura Ingraham that his answer to early voting and mail in ballots is to “swamp them” is ludicrous at best. People may not want to listen to Nikki Haley as a messenger, but her message of warning is politically serious — and the Trump campaign has no answer for it.

Biden and Haley outraise Trump

The donors are still not boosting the once and future GOP nominee.

Last month, the former South Carolina governor’s campaign pulled in more than $9.8 million in contributions. A pro-Haley super PAC took in an additional $5.8 million in individual donations, thanks almost entirely to donations of $100,000 or more. Venture capital and business leaders were among the most generous.

Those new figures, made public Tuesday in federal campaign filings, show how Haley’s supporters have poured money into what has increasingly become a long-shot bid for the Republican nomination. Those dollars have allowed for more polling, media and travel expenses — even as she has lagged in every survey…

Trump is well ahead in the race but his finances have shown stress. His campaign and at least one supportive super PAC spent more last month than it brought in, as his legal expenses have continued to encumber his White House bid. Trump is facing several criminal cases, including federal charges that he tried to remain in power after the 2020 election.

Trump’s campaign committee raised $8.8 million in January, most of it transfers from his joint fundraising committee. His campaign committee ended the month with $30.5 million in cash, behind $56 million for President Biden’s campaign committee but ahead of Haley’s $13 million…

Trump’s fundraising is even more critical as he’s increasingly likely to face Biden in the general election. Biden, eighty-one, has faced persistent questions about his age and increased anxieties among Democrats who worry that he is trailing in many national and battleground-state polls.

Nonetheless, Biden’s campaign said it and related entities had about $130 million in the bank by the end of January, after raising $42 million during the month.

Biden relies on cheat sheets at fundraisers

Worrying donors:

President Biden has been using notecards in closed-door fundraisers, calling on prescreened donors and then consulting his notes to provide detailed answers, according to people familiar with the routine.

Why it matters: Biden’s reliance on notecards to help explain his own policy positions — on questions he knows are coming — is raising concerns among some donors about Biden’s age. The president is eighty-one but claims he feels younger.

The staged Q&A sessions have left some donors wondering whether Biden can withstand the rigors of a presidential campaign, let alone potential debates with former President Trump, seventy-seven.

Biden advisers say the president is given notecards only for very detailed and technical questions, and say he frequently does spontaneous Q&As.

Most recent presidents — including Trump, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Barack Obama — have carried crib notes, or used teleprompters, to help guide them through various public events and meetings. In Biden’s case, donors have noticed he’s also using notecards in private events.

Trump critics fear retribution

We’ll flee the country, they threaten!

If Donald Trump stood no chance of becoming president again, the Vindman family would be planning a milestone birthday celebration right now.

Alexander Vindman’s wife, Rachel, turns fifty next month. But rather than spend money on a party, she wants to save it in case Trump returns to the White House and tries to retaliate against her husband for being a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment, Alexander Vindman said in an interview. The family might need the money in case they have to flee the country.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Vindman, a national security official in Trump’s White House who was ousted in 2020 after Trump’s acquittal, but “that’s an indicator of the level of concern that she’s had.”

The Vindmans aren’t alone. Interviews with more than a dozen people who’ve run afoul of Trump for various reasons reveal deep worry among many that he will seek revenge if he wins another term. They are considering ways to protect themselves should he use the office’s vast powers to punish them over grievances that he’s been nursing.

Fearful of being hounded by investigators, prosecuted or stripped of their livelihoods, some are planning to leave the country if Trump is sworn in. Others are consulting attorneys or setting aside money to fight back in case they’re targeted either by Trump’s administration or by his Republican allies in Congress.

For his part, Trump has promised that his only revenge will be “success.”

One more thing

Much of the talk since Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race has been around whether the open, acrimonious split between MAGA-land and DeSantis world could be reckoned with, as dueling influencers who really truly hate each other make peace. But that doesn’t include Chris LaCivita, the Trump campaign manager, who still bashes the Florida governor on the regular. He responded to sniping from DeSantis with this: “A top strategist for Donald Trump hurled a uniquely personal attack at Ron DeSantis Wednesday night, calling him ‘a sad little man’ who will be remembered for ‘chicken fingers and pudding cups.’” It’s a reminder of the dictum: there’s no better time to kick a man than when he’s down.