Celebrity endorsements take over 2024 election

It’s that time of the 2024 election… the Democrats are rolling out the celebrity endorsements. Oprah Winfrey made a surprise appearance at the Democratic National Convention, and the DNC also featured four “celebrity” hosts: Kerry Washington, Tony Goldwyn, Mindy Kaling and Ana Navarro.

This week after the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, Harris got her white whale: pop superstar Taylor Swift. Back in January, reports said the Biden campaign was hoping for her endorsement the most. 

Swift released her endorsement on her Instagram account next to a picture from her TIME Person of the Year cover holding her cat. The content of the endorsement was relatively toned down compared to Swift’s past statements about Trump, where she accused him of “stoking the fires of white supremacy.” She said she was voting for Harris after doing her “research” and encouraging her fans to do their research as well and register to vote. 

“I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make,” Swift wrote. She closed the post with a jab at Trump running mate J.D. Vance, signing it, “childless cat lady.”

It’s probably not an accident that Swift, who has endorsed Democrats in the past few election cycles and first came out as a liberal in the 2018 midterms, chose softer language for her post. As calculated as she is, she is certainly aware that celebrity endorsements can sometimes have the opposite effect of the one intended.

In fact, Swift said that she stayed out of the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton because she didn’t think she would help. She told Vogue that Trump “was weaponizing the idea of the celebrity endorsement.” Trump was running on an anti-elitist and anti-establishment platform, so every celebrity on Clinton’s side only affirmed his narrative. 

According to a survey by Agility PR, about 60 percent of consumers trust brands less when they use celebrity endorsements because they lack authenticity and credibility. Politicians are essentially brands. In order for celebrity endorsements to count, people need to trust them on matters of politics. They also don’t like being lectured about whom to vote for. Morning Consult says most adults feel it’s appropriate for celebrities to encourage people to vote and speak on specific issues, but don’t approve when celebrities to tell them to cast their ballot for a specific candidate. Only 43 percent and 40 percent, respectively, think it is appropriate for celebrities to support or criticize Trump, for example. 

But people — inconsistently, as humans tend to be — also claim they do care what celebrities say about political candidates. According to a Newsweek poll conducted this spring before Biden dropped out, up to 22 percent of Biden’s supporters said they would be more likely to vote for a Republican if Swift endorsed them; 16 percent of Trump supporters would be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate endorsed by Swift. However, her sway is supposedly significantly lower than other “celebrities.” A USA Today poll found that only about 9 percent of voters would be influenced by Swift, compared to 13 percent for Joe Rogan, 15.2 percent for Elon Musk, 15.4 percent for Oprah, 19.8 percent for George W. Bush and, topping the list, 29.4 and 34.6 percent for Michelle and Barack Obama, respectively. Six percent of voters overall said they care about celebrity endorsements, which doesn’t seem like much, but in an electoral college system where tens of thousands of votes across a handful of swing states can change the outcome, that’s actually fairly significant. 

Most fair political analysts will tell you that despite what people say, though, celebrity endorsements don’t matter. Academic studies on the topic tend to agree that they don’t move the needle much and might even backfire. Celebrities might get their fan base more excited about a candidate they already plan to support or encourage voter registration — more than 400,000 people went to vote.gov after Swift’s post, compared to about 300,000 in the week before the debate — but probably don’t change minds or drive otherwise low propensity voters to the polls. 

“I think it’s probably a little bit more just to make people who already lean towards Harris or already preferred her a little bit more excited about her,” Alexander Tahk, political science professor and expert on public opinion of the University of Wisconsin, said.

There doesn’t seem to be much good data on who exactly might be influenced by a celebrity’s politics, but we do know who makes up the most obsessed fanbases: celebrity worship is associated with “problematic internet use, maladaptive daydreaming and desire for fame,” says a study published by the NIH. In short, probably not your most well-adjusted people. 

The most influential celebrity endorsement was Oprah coming out in favor of Barack Obama in 2008, which one study claims could have driven one million additional votes for him. Oprah’s endorsement was seen as particularly powerful at the time because, of course, she had a massive audience, but, more importantly, she was seen as a trusted, mostly apolitical voice. Swift might have had a greater impact before everyone knew she was a Democrat; now, a Harris endorsement seems par for the course rather than the weighty outcome of some deep soul searching. Oprah is much the same — although her appearance at the convention was not planned, it wasn’t really a surprise. Tyler Foggatt in the New Yorker helpfully described these celebrities as “cultural avatars for the Democrats.”

Politicians also sometimes ruin their own celebrity endorsements by trying too hard to elevate them. Harris mostly avoided this because, even though her team embraced the imagery, she personally never commented on the “Brat” phenomenon. Compare this to Senator Ed Markey, who said his favorite Taylor Swift song is “Snow on the Beach,” because it emphasizes the threat of climate change (the song is actually about the rarity of people falling in love and how “beautiful” it is). Other politicians have gone full cringe by trying to hop on popular TikTok trends, dances and all. 

All of this has led quite a few celebrities to keep their endorsements subtle or decline to make them at all. Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy reacted to Swift’s Harris endorsement by stating simply, “I’m voting the other way, but to each their own.” R&B singer Usher made clear he was voting for Harris during a recent appearance on The View but demurred when Joy Behar begged him to officially endorse her, explaining, “ I think voting is an individual choice.”

Brittany Mahomes, the wife of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, was recently dogged on the internet for “liking” an Instagram post of Trump’s policy platform. Trump later praised her in social media post as he commented on her friend Swift’s decision not to back him. Mahomes’s husband brushed off Trump’s support for his wife and gave the following answer when asked about political endorsements: 

I don’t want my place and my platform to be used to endorse a candidate or do whatever, either way. I think my place is to inform people to get registered to vote. It’s to inform people to do their own research and then make the best decision for them and their family.

WNBA player Caitlin Clark was asked about her decision to “like” Swift’s post endorsing Harris and also declined to endorse anyone. “I have this amazing platform, so I think the biggest thing would be just encourage people to register to vote,” Clark said, adding that she hopes her followers “educate” themselves about the candidates and the political process.

Some have described these series of comments as “Michael Jordan moments.” Jordan is believed to have famously said he would not wade into politics because “Republicans buy sneakers, too.” The quote was reported secondhand and is disputed by representatives for Jordan. It’s also kind of an admission that Jordan is a Democrat.

It was nice when we all pretty much knew that Hollywood and some professional sports leagues were liberal, but we didn’t have to hear about it a whole lot. If the recent over-saturation of celebrity endorsements helps take us back to that place, I think America will be better for it.