Biden catches a break on inflation

Things are looking up. Today began with some very good economic news in Washington: Labor Department data shows inflation falling to a two-year low. The consumer price index rose 3 percent in the twelve months to June. That is a steep fall from the 9.1 percent price rise in the twelve months to June 2022, and perhaps the clearest sign yet that the US is on course to tame inflation while avoiding a recession — the soft landing that Joe Biden, Jay Powell and every other policymaker in Washington has been praying for.

Core consumer prices increased by…

Things are looking up. Today began with some very good economic news in Washington: Labor Department data shows inflation falling to a two-year low. The consumer price index rose 3 percent in the twelve months to June. That is a steep fall from the 9.1 percent price rise in the twelve months to June 2022, and perhaps the clearest sign yet that the US is on course to tame inflation while avoiding a recession — the soft landing that Joe Biden, Jay Powell and every other policymaker in Washington has been praying for.

Core consumer prices increased by 0.2 percent in June, the smallest single-month increase since August 2021 and an indicator that the pressure on prices is easing. This doesn’t mean it’s time to declare victory in the fight against inflation, of course. Price rises remain higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. And, as Michael R. Strain cautions, “one month does not make a trend.” But for now, the cocktail of cooling inflation, resilient jobs numbers and solid GDP growth is cause for celebration — especially given the forecasts late last year that put the chances of a recession in 2023 at close to 100 percent.

The White House has claimed this progress as a win. “That’s Bidenomics in action,” read a tweet from the president’s account this morning. It’s hard to see what about “Bidenomics” has helped bring price rises under control. From inflationary spending to the Orwellian “Inflation Reduction Act” and red herrings like this administration’s blame-shifting focus on “greedflation,” Biden has been all over the place on this issue. But he may get away with it. Voters hold administrations responsible for the economic environment, whether or not they deserve it.

Some in the White House have treated the unpopularity of Bidenomics as a confounding political riddle. But, as I’ve argued before, the explanation is really quite simple: prices have risen faster than wages since Joe Biden entered the White House. Americans feel poorer under Joe Biden because they are poorer under Joe Biden. But today’s news means wages are rising faster than prices for the first time in years. If that holds, and Biden is given the gift of a soft landing in the next year or so, voters may be in a more forgiving mood come November 2024.

On our radar

MANCHIN HEADS TO NEW HAMPSHIRE West Virginia senator Joe Manchin will head to New Hampshire next week with No Labels, the moderate group threatening to run a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential race, reports the Daily Mail. The trip to the early-voting state is the latest hint that Manchin is contemplating a presidential bid — a nightmare scenario for Joe Biden.

X-WRAY FBI director Christopher Wray sat through a House Judiciary Committee grilling for most of the day. Republicans portrayed Wray as disconnected with his own department, while Democrats used him as a stand-in to praise all law enforcement.

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Desperate GOP candidates hatch schemes to reach debate donor threshold

They say that necessity is the mother of invention, and we are seeing that truism play out in real time with what C-list Republican presidential candidates are doing to qualify for the presidential primary debates.

While it’s increasingly unclear if former president Donald Trump will even appear on the debate stage himself, candidates such as North Dakota governor Doug Burgum are trying something new out: paying people to recruit more donors.

The routes being taken by these also-ran candidates are slightly different. America Strong & Free PAC, which is backing former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, is offering to make some small-dollar bundlers contractors by paying them for every new donor they recruit, Cockburn can first report. This is an increasingly urgent necessity because the Republican National Committee set a threshold of at least 40,000 unique donors for each candidate to have in order to qualify for the first debate next month. Hutchinson said last week that he is barely 10 percent of the way there.

The former Arkansas governor is not alone in rolling out debate gimmicks. He’s joined by Burgum, whose plans are far more public. The billionaire tech mogul has money to burn, which is a good thing, because he is running Facebook ads touting his plans to give out “Biden Economic Relief cards” worth $20 to up to 50,000 people. His campaign is also advertising on Instagram, offering to ship anyone an American flag as long as they send him a single dollar.

Cockburn is patiently awaiting further offers from presidential candidates to buy him off, but cautions Governor Burgum that his asking price is more than just a $20 Biden Economic Relief card…

–Cockburn

District leaders finally recognize crime emergency

The Council of the District of Columbia passed an emergency crime bill on Tuesday that aims to give judges, police and prosecutors more power as the city faces a spike in violent crime.

“We have a crisis of violent crime in the District. Unless things turnaround quickly, we could have a third straight year with more than 200 homicides in more than two decades,” said Council Member Brooke Pinto. “I hear from residents every single day that people are fearful and want urgent action.”

The new bill, proposed by Pinto, creates a new offense for firing a gun in public, makes it easier for prosecutors to extradite people for misdemeanor offenses and allows police and prosecutors to use GPS data from ankle monitors to prove a suspect’s guilt in court. It also makes it easier for DC judges to hold violent crime suspects in custody while awaiting trial.

The bill came after DC police data revealed an increase in violent crimes between 2022 and 2023. Homicides rose 17 percent, sex abuse 35 percent, and robberies doubled.

“The legislation that the council passed today will fill gaps in our criminal justice system and, in doing so, will increase accountability for violent and criminal behavior and make our city safer,” DC mayor Muriel Bowser said in a statement.

–Michael Bachmann