Here comes the California backlash

As goes California…
…so goes the nation. The Golden State is used to its trailblazer status. But in recent years it has been a harbinger of what is to come across America for all the wrong reasons. Endemic homelessness, soaring overdose deaths and rising crime dominate politics in the state’s cities. An increasingly hostile environment in which to do business has fueled an exodus from the state that only accelerated once the pandemic, and the associated restrictions and mandates, arrived.

Now, California looks poised once again to be a sign of things to come with regard to…

As goes California…

…so goes the nation. The Golden State is used to its trailblazer status. But in recent years it has been a harbinger of what is to come across America for all the wrong reasons. Endemic homelessness, soaring overdose deaths and rising crime dominate politics in the state’s cities. An increasingly hostile environment in which to do business has fueled an exodus from the state that only accelerated once the pandemic, and the associated restrictions and mandates, arrived.

Now, California looks poised once again to be a sign of things to come with regard to the backlash against the progressivism that has got the state, and in particular, its cities, into the current mess.

As Californians vote in primaries today, it’s a recall race in San Francisco grabbing most of the attention. Chesa Boudin has become the face of the group of progressive prosecutors who have overseen rising crime in major American cities. If he is booted out in perhaps America’s most liberal city, the message on the dangers of a lax approach to law and order will surely be loud enough to penetrate the Democratic echo changer. (Read Gilbert T. Sewall on the recall race on our site.) Victory for the recall campaign will encourage those running a similar effort to oust LA’s progressive prosecutor, George Gascón. And it might even cause others from the same movement overseeing growing lawlessness in cities like Philadelphia and Chicago to consider a change in direction.

In Los Angeles, Rick Caruso looks to be finding some success with a cunning strategy to win as a big city Republican. Step one: change your party registration to Democrat (which Caruso did a few years ago). Step two: make the most of the fact you are a billionaire by outspending your competitors by several orders of magnitude. Step three: Get famous people to endorse you. Elon Musk, Kim Kardashian and Katy Perry are just some of the A-listers touting the property-developer-turned-politician’s candidacy. Let’s see if it works.

Statewide, Michael Shellenberger is conducting an interesting experiment in how to oppose a terrible governor is a deep-blue state. I spoke to him about that experiment last week. And I hope it works.

Meanwhile, Republicans are watching primaries in a handful of swing Congressional districts. Orange County’s Young Kim and the Central Valley’s David Valadao both face challenges from the right, with many in party leadership worried that victory for these insurgents in the primary would spell trouble in November.

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Inflation: Europe vs America

The most compelling White House defense on inflation is to point out that America is hardly alone when it comes to dealing with soaring prices. Of course, any account of rising costs that blames Biden exclusively is failing to see the big picture. But, as former Obama economic advisor Jason Furman’s explanation of the differences between European and American inflation in a Wall Street Journal op-ed makes clear, that shouldn’t let the administration off the hook.

As Furman writes, “with US nominal gross domestic product about 2 percent above trend and euro area nominal GDP about 2 percent below trend, it is clear that excess demand is playing a bigger role here, while Europe probably still has some additional economic slack.” Europe is feeling the consequences of a spike in the price of natural gas more acutely, while America is suffering for running the economy too hot. The Biden administration wants to operate in a world where they get credit for faster growth but don’t get any blame for rising prices. But they are two sides of the same coin.

Progress on gun reform?

Might the Senate be about to disprove the assumption that, in the wake of the horrifying Uvalde school shooting, there would be no meaningful change to gun laws? Yesterday, Republican senators involved in the bipartisan negotiations on gun safety legislation seemed notably upbeat. Texas senator John Cornyn, the lead Republican negotiator, held long meetings with Republicans and Democrats on Monday, a sign, perhaps, that progress is being made. Meanwhile, lead Democratic negotiator Chris Murphy said Monday that his goal was to get a deal in place by the end of the week.