Will Iran’s axis die?

From the hilltop viewpoint at Misgav Am, Israel’s northernmost kibbutz in the Upper Galilee, the view into southern Lebanon is a panorama of uncertainty. Less than a full day after Assad was finally defeated in Syria, I stand at and look down at the rubble of the Lebanese buildings destroyed in the recent fighting, as close to the Syrian border as the IDF will allow. Beside my feet, spent bullet casings remind me that less than two weeks ago this peaceful spot was a frontline position. The shell of a bombed-out nearby community viewpoint serves as a silent witness to the RPG attacks Hezbollah regularly launched on civilian homes and buildings since it started its war on Israel in October 2023. 

The ceasefire, still fresh and precarious, has brought a fragile quiet to this battered border. Yet the scars of this latest chapter in a much longer war remain. Hezbollah’s repeated rocket attacks, countered by Israeli airstrikes and incursions, turned communities like this into ghost towns, forcing evacuations and upending lives. The road to Misgav Am winds through charred landscapes, blackened trees standing as grim sentinels of the chaos that erupted across Israel’s north.

Iran’s strategy now appears increasingly unsustainable

From here, looking across the Blue Line, the enormity of the changes sweeping the Middle East is impossible to ignore. The war of the last year — indeed, the war of years — has entered a new phase. The Hamas-led assault on October 7, a massive miscalculation by the Palestinians in Gaza, has become an accelerant for broader regional shifts, unraveling the balance of power and weakening Iran’s influence across the region.

That attack was a catalyst for change that continues to affect the Middle East. Hamas’s massacre of Israeli civilians and its broader assault on the country was meant to undermine Israel’s security. Instead, it united Israeli society, solidified global support for Israel, and set in motion a realignment that has exposed the fragility and weakness of the Iranian axis. Yet Israelis are still cautiously avoiding celebration, for much remains uncertain and there is plenty of danger still ahead. 

Hezbollah’s decision to escalate the conflict from Lebanon further tethered it to Hamas’ gamble, though it avoided a full invasion. Israel was forced to respond. Israel’s military actions in both Gaza and along the northern border revealed something deeper: the diminishing power of Iran’s network of proxies and the cracks in Tehran’s once-dominant “Axis of Resistance.”

The Iranian axis — spanning Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza — has long relied on its proxies to project power and destabilize its enemies. But this strategy, stretched thin over the past decade, now appears increasingly unsustainable. Hezbollah, Iran’s crown jewel in the region, has faced immense strain, its resources drained by years of involvement in Syria and its credibility eroded by Lebanon’s economic collapse.

In Syria, Iran’s efforts to entrench itself suffered repeated blows, with Israeli airstrikes targeting weapons depots and infrastructure vital to its operations. Russian forces — once a stabilizing partner for Iran in the region — redeployed resources to Ukraine, allowing Syrian rebels to topple Assad.

The weakening of Iran’s influence has coincided with the rise of a new regional alignment, spearheaded by the Abraham Accords. Signed in 2020, these agreements between Israel and several Arab states — including the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco — have laid the foundation for an unprecedented era of cooperation. In the wake of the October 7 attacks, this cooperation has been tested and endured.

The Gulf states are increasingly prioritizing economic development, regional stability, and countering Iranian aggression over solidarity with Palestinians. The reasons for this shift are both pragmatic and ideological. Arab leaders see little benefit in continuing to align with a Palestinian cause dominated by groups like Hamas, whose violence undermines their own security and economic interests. Moreover, they view Israel not as an existential threat but as a partner capable of addressing shared challenges, from water scarcity to renewable energy.

Syria’s future following the departure of Assad has both opportunity and peril

Yet, as hopeful as this realignment may appear, it is not without its risks. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has brought temporary calm, but it is far from a guarantee of lasting peace. The sixty-day timeline raises pressing questions: what happens when Israel withdraws its forces from southern Lebanon? Can Unfil (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) or the Lebanese Armed Forces fill the vacuum (this hardly worked before), or will Hezbollah simply reassert control?

Syria’s future following the departure of Assad has both opportunity and peril. On one hand, the end of an autocratic regime tied to Iran’s influence could create space for localized self-governance and weaken Tehran’s regional axis. On the other, Syria’s fractured social fabric — divided by ethnic, religious and ideological fault lines — threatens to unravel further without a unifying authority. Rebel factions, Kurdish groups, and external powers like Turkey, Russia, and the US are poised to exploit the vacuum, potentially leading to fragmentation. Amid this uncertainty, questions loom about whether the vacuum will give rise to renewed chaos, another dictatorship, or an unforeseen coalition. In a region shaped by volatile geopolitics, Syria’s trajectory will test the international community’s capacity to balance order, stability and justice.

In Gaza, the situation is equally precarious. Hamas remains weakened but not defeated, and despite chatter this week surrounding an imminent hostage deal, nothing is confirmed, and the rumored details suggest many will remain left behind.

The broader question is whether the region is truly on the cusp of a new era or merely entering another phase of its long history of conflict and instability. For all the optimism surrounding Israel’s renewed deterrence and emerging partnerships, the Middle East remains a region of deep divisions and unresolved grievances. Optimism for Trump’s second term and satisfaction with Israel’s spectacular military success so far cannot dispel the massive uncertainty that remains. 

The choices made in the coming months — by Israel, its Arab neighbors and their adversaries — will determine whether the region moves toward stability or slips back into chaos. The road to Misgav Am, lined with the scars of recent attacks, serves as a reminder that history here is never static. From this vantage point, the stakes have never seemed higher.