Is Putin happy with Trump’s comeback?

When Donald Trump won the presidential election last Wednesday, one leader’s message of congratulation was conspicuously absent. It took the Russian president Vladimir Putin more than twenty-four hours to pass comment on Trump’s win. He eventually praised the president-elect as “courageous” and said he had “nothing against” Trump trying to resume contact with him. Putin, however, wouldn’t be calling him.

Many in Ukraine have been concerned that Trump might seek to do a deal with Moscow over Kyiv’s head

Well now it appears Trump may well have made the call. It has been reported that last Thursday, the president-elect picked up the phone to Putin, warning him “not to escalate the war in Ukraine” and reminding him of the American military’s “significant presence” in Europe. The two are also said to have “briefly” touched on the idea of a possible peace deal that would see Russia hold on to some of the Ukrainian territory it currently occupies.

Intriguingly, this morning the Kremlin denied the call took place. Speaking to journalists, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the reports “completely untrue. This is pure fiction, this is simply false information.” Such denials should, as always though, be taken with a pinch of salt.

Since the early days of his presidential campaign, Donald Trump’s plans for Ukraine and ending the Russian invasion — something he repeatedly claimed he could do in “twenty-four hours” — has been a growing source of anxiety for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his allies. Many in Ukraine have been concerned that Trump might seek to do a deal with Moscow over Kyiv’s head, potentially handing over sovereign Ukrainian territory to Russia while banning Ukraine from joining NATO. 

Initial reports suggested that Ukraine had not publicly protested about the call because they had been informed about it in advance. But the country’s foreign ministry disputed that claim this morning. “Reports that the Ukrainian side was informed in advance about the alleged call are false. Accordingly, Ukraine could not approve or oppose the call,” their spokesperson said. Zelensky has long insisted that peace talks that don’t include Ukraine would be illegitimate — a position Joe Biden’s administration has firmly supported. 

Ukraine does have some time to play with at least. Beyond making phone calls, there is little Trump can do until he is inaugurated in mid-January. It will only be then that his full ambitions for Ukraine will become clear. Until then, the clock is ticking for the Biden administration and Ukraine’s European allies to shore up Kyiv with as much aid and weaponry as possible — in case the new president pulls such support in just under three months’ time. 

To that end, Ukraine will once again be on the agenda for British prime minister Keir Starmer during his Armistice Day visit to France today. Along with the French president Emmanuel Macron, Starmer will reportedly once again try to persuade Biden to grant permission for Ukraine to use the Franco-British long-range missiles on targets inside Russia. 

Over the summer, Zelensky had toured Europe and the US in an attempt to get his allies to approve the extended use of Storm Shadows. Starmer had even flown to see Biden in the White House in September to try and secure his blessing. These efforts failed because of American fears that allowing Ukraine to target Russian territory with western-made missiles would be crossing one red line too many for Putin.

In the meantime, the war in Ukraine continues apace. Russia has reportedly amassed 50,000 troops in its Kursk region — portions of which have been held by Ukraine since early August — with its counteroffensive planned to begin any day. Among those troops are said to be 10,000 or so North Koreans, sent over from the hermit kingdom to train and fight alongside Putin’s forces.

For all the machismo displayed between Trump and Putin in the five days or so since the presidential election, their reported phone call is by no means a sign of thawing relations. Trump is an isolationist, but he also had a hawkish streak when dealing with Russia during his previous term in office. Putin putting North Korean troops on the frontline is something he is unlikely to let slide. While Russians celebrated Trump’s 2016 win in the streets, there was no such jubilation this time around. Putin is watching and waiting — as are we all.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.