Trump’s closing argument is for the faithful supporter

For the past several months, it’s been well apparent that Donald Trump is winning this election. There are numerous factors that would indicate this. Early vote numbers are distinctly more Republican-leaning than they have been historically. Behind-the-scenes reports among Democrats indicate high levels of buyer’s remorse for picking Kamala Harris — and additional doubts about the failure to pick a higher-quality vice presidential candidate. Harris’s failures in numerous interviews and appearances to answer basic questions with anything convincing and inspirational, resorting instead to repeated talking points and not very good ones at that, have given Americans the impression they are voting for a mystery-box candidate versus the devil they know. 

The billion dollars spent on giving Kamala a winner’s glow has left her still upside-down in approval ratings. Her campaign couldn’t even manage an appearance with Beyoncé without getting booed for failure to live up to expectations.

And yet. And yet.

The problem for Donald Trump is that in the past week, he’s done a lot of things and engaged with several voices that seem to give volume to his worst attributes. The scene at Madison Square Garden — as much as the media criticism is ludicrous and overblown — was more notable for what it failed to offer voters in the closing weeks. The lean-in to just more bro-centric content creators was lamentable. And the failure to offer a clear storyline of what voters brow-beaten by this economy can expect was a missed opportunity. 

If your goal is to close the deal with a big national spectacle, why make it a litany of people who we already know love you like the daddy figure they never had in their lives? Why not reach for the margins, for gettable independents who truly still do exist in key states in small but key numbers, instead of sticking with the people who write your name in lipstick and circle it with a heart?

If Donald Trump loses this election, it’s going to be because of fundamental advantages for Democrats in several key states on rules set under Covid and continued to this day. But it will also be because it’s just not smart to spend the last week leading up to an election talking about all the things that your natural supporters like the most. It’s comfortable and safe for MAGA, but it’s also the kind of tactic that leaves some voters asking: what’s in the box?