Israeli Air Force launches successful strikes against Iran

Just over three weeks after Iran attacked Israel with 200 ballistic missiles, the Israeli Air Force finally launched a retaliatory air strike on Iranian military facilities last night. The IAF strike reportedly lasted three hours, and was carried out in three waves. It was based on impressively precise intelligence and targeted the missile manufacturing facilities where the ballistic missiles used in Iran’s attack earlier this month were made. The IAF also struck surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile arrays.

As soon as reports of the attack emerged, the Iranian disinformation machine whirred into action. Through official channels as well as online influencers and bots, Iran denied that its facilities were successfully bombed and claimed that the attack caused only “limited damage.” It released videos on social media showing that it’s “business as usual” in Iran. Although its air defenses have proven useless against the IAF, Iran claimed that its systems managed to intercept some missiles. The Israeli Defense Forces have claimed that none of the missiles were shot down and all hit their targets successfully.

Despite Iranian attempts to underplay the consequences of the attack, in military terms, the country's capabilities today are not what they were yesterday. It took the IAF just three hours to cripple Iran’s defensive and offensive abilities. Iran still has the ability to threaten Israel, especially using drones — a cheap and effective weapon that is difficult to intercept — but their capabilities have nevertheless been greatly diminished as a result of Israel’s attack.

Israel’s message to Iran is ‘the ball is in your court'

Although Israel's response may seem limited, it sends as strong message to the Iranian regime. The strike has proven to Iran that it cannot defend itself against Israeli attacks. Israel enjoys significant military superiority that allows its forces to travel 1,000 miles, reach Iranian airspace if it needs to (some of the missiles from last night’s strikes were launched from a distance), hit targets with precision and return safely to base.

This was the first time that Israel has openly admitted to attacking Iran. Most of Israel’s actions against Iran, especially its nuclear facilities, have in the past been covert and allowed Israel to maintain deniability. This strike was vastly different, and had two main objectives: to target Iranian weapons that pose an immediate threat to Israelis, and to establish deterrence.

The strike was carefully planned. The Israeli government considered how to respond to Iran’s unprecedented attack in early October, and was under considerable American pressure to limit its response. It may have suffered a setback earlier this week, when a Pentagon official leaked highly classified information about a planned Israeli strike.

Israel avoided targeting nuclear facilities and oil sites, and limited strikes to military sites removed from civilian population centers. The nature of last night’s attack shows that Israel is not interested triggering an escalation into full-scale war with Iran. The IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagar said in a statement after the strike, that "if the regime in Iran were to make a mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond. Our message is clear: all those who threaten the state of Israel and seek to drag the region into wider escalation, will pay a heavy price."

A day ago, in anticipation of a retaliatory attack by Israel, the New York Times reported that the Ayatollah Khamenei has instructed the Iranian military to prepare for war against Israel. It remains to be seen what the Iranian response may be and whether Israel’s choice of targets, keeping the attack limited, will allow the Iranian regime to claim victory so it has an excuse not to act and suffer more Israeli strikes as a result. For now, Israel is on high alert in case of an Iranian attack.

Israel’s message to Iran is "the ball is in your court." But the Iranian court was badly damaged last night. Iran has threatened Israel with annihilation for years, and boasted about its military might, yet it launched two large-scale attacks this year that failed to cause much damage. It’s now clear that Israel has the capabilities and the resources to hit Iran where and when it has to, and Iran has extremely limited ability to defend itself. It could mean that Iran will choose easier targets, such as international Jewish or Israeli targets, but Israel seems determined to discourage the Ayatollah from further adventures that will continue the cycle of violence.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.