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Americans head to the polls today, with gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and mayoral elections in New York City and Minneapolis. The races are being talked of as an early test for Trump, a bellwether for the public mood after a breakneck ten months back in the Oval.
A qualifying remark. Each of these races are taking place in traditionally blue cities and states – Virginia has not voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 2004; New Jersey since 1988; Minnesota since 1972. Still, these places – even New York – trended strongly purple at the last election; in this sense, today’s elections will be a test of the so-called “vibe-shift” and its extent.
On the other hand, back in 2021 the success of Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatorial bid in Virginia was said to be a bad omen for the new Biden presidency. Serious reversals in what can still be called Democratic strongholds would likely throw the party into renewed crisis.
Virginia
In the Old Dominion, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears takes on Democrat Abigail Spanberger for the governor’s mansion. As Margaret Mitchell has noted, the issues that carried Youngkin’s candidacy – such as critical race theory and transgender bathrooms – are not nearly as salient as they were in 2021, with much of this agenda having since been rolled back. In this sense, Earle-Sears is a victim of the right’s broader success. In their absence Virginia politics is now returning to its default mode: as a state dominated by government and government-adjacent employees concentrated in “NoVa” (Northern Virginia) – fertile ground for the former CIA officer Spanberger. RealClearPolitics’s poll of polls has her leading by around 10 points.
Meanwhile, the race for the state’s Attorney General has achieved a rare national prominence due to a scandal involving the Democratic candidate, Jay Jones. Last month it was revealed that in 2022 Jones had, in a series of texts and calls to a GOP colleague, called for the deaths the then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert as well as his children. Polls have Jones and the Republican incumbent Jason Miyares neck-and-neck.
Polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET, with most precincts expected to report by 9-10 p.m.
New Jersey
Republican Jack Ciattarelli is having another tilt for the governorship after coming within 3 percent of victory back in 2021 – this time against Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill. New Jersey is probably the most promising prospect for the GOP tonight: the state only plumped for Harris by 6 percent – an unthinkable margin ten years ago. A Republican in the governor’s mansion of this stalwart blue state would be a major endorsement of the President’s agenda. RealClearPolitics’s poll of polls has Sherrill leading by 3.3 percent.
Polls close in New Jersey at 8 p.m. ET, with most precincts expected to report between 10 p.m. and midnight.
New York
Easily the most prominent of today’s contests, the race for the New York mayoralty has become a proxy war for the future of the Democratic party, with millennial socialist Zohran Mamdani unexpectedly beating hoary old Andrew Cuomo to the nomination, who is now running as an independent. If Mamdani wins, as the polls still suggest he will (despite narrowing considerably in recent days), then this will represent the first triumph for the American hard left since Bernie Sanders’s victory in the Nevada primary back in 2020.
There’s also the perennial Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, whose homespun manner and trademark red beret (the uniform of the “Guardian Angels” neighborhood watch, which Sliwa founded in 1979) has won him a devoted following. Donald Trump has, however, chosen to endorse Cuomo as the best chance to ward off the socialist tide. RealClearPolitics’ poll of polls has Mamdani on 46.1 percent, Cuomo on 31.8 percent, and Silwa on 16.3 percent. The Mamdani camp is said to be feeling bullish amid reports of record youth turnout.
Polls close in New York City at 9 p.m. ET, with a projection expected at 1 a.m.
Minneapolis
Another intra-Democratic scrap in Minneapolis, where the hard-left Omar Fateh seeks to oust Jacob Frey – who, as you may remember, played a key role in the events of summer 2020 after the death of George Floyd. Fateh was endorsed by the Minneapolis branch of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (the local Minnesotan chapter of the Democratic party), but the endorsement was revoked in August amid claims of electoral skulduggery by the Fateh camp at its convention. Another complicating factor is that Minneapolis uses a ranked-choice voting system, meaning that – unlike Mamdani – Fateh cannot rely on division among the non-socialists to win.
Polling for this race has been scant, but a recent survey found that 51 percent of city residents had an unfavorable view of Frey.
Polls close in Minneapolis at 9 p.m. ET, with a projection expected between 11 p.m. and midnight.
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