So much for Trump’s peace push

Here we go again. Now that Russian president Vladimir Putin has resumed his bombardment of Ukraine, President Donald Trump is responding by sanctioning the oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. So much for the vaunted peace push that Trump has been engaging in since he met with Putin in August in Alaska. 

The atmosphere has turned distinctly frostier since they held their pow-wow. Budapest was supposed to be a reprise of the brief thaw that took place in August but Trump has got cold feet after the Kremlin indicated that it was in no mood to compromise over the actual boundaries between it and Ukraine. Instead, as foreign minister Sergey Lavrov indicated, Russia cannot rest content as long as what he called unrepentant Nazis were in charge in Kyiv. Putin and his camarilla, in other words, want a restoration of the old order, which is to say a pliant puppet state.

Apart from his blatant military failure to conquer Ukraine (it was supposed to be a cakewalk, according to what turned out to be his non-intelligence services), the problem for Putin is that Kyiv is becoming more, not less, independent as the war continues. Zelensky has learned from his previous encounters with Trump not to overreact to his momentary ebullitions of rage, which are usually replaced by a weary resignation to geopolitical dictates. Those dictates are that he is no position to dictate a surrender because Europe, much to its own surprise, has become the chief source of weaponry for Ukraine. Exhibit A is Zelensky’s new push for 150 Gripen fighter jets from Sweden, which he is currently visiting. For Europe, the supply of weaponry to Ukraine bids fair to become a source of a kind of Keynesian stimulus program. It also has the not inconsiderable advantage of allowing the Ukrainians to wage the conflict with Russia that the peace-loving Europeans themselves dread. 

Trump’s own attention to Ukraine is episodic. He was briefly reanimated by the prospect of earning a Nobel Peace Prize. With Putin balking at a real cease-fire, Trump has other projects to pursue, most notably demolishing the East Wing of the White House and replacing it with a pharaonic temple to himself in the form of a ballroom that can hold up 900 or more guests. Trump may well sell the naming rights to the gleaming golden hall unless he decides to affix his own to it. 

The real loser in all of this is probably Hungarian president Viktor Orban, who faces a stiff election challenge in April. Hosting Trump and Putin would have been a true feather in his cap. Instead, he will have to forego the fancy visit and continue the grinding prospect of serving as Putin’s wingman in the European Union, a status that has brought much obloquy and little profit, other than a dispensation when it comes to energy prices from Russia. 

Given Trump’s volatility, however, it may only take another phone call from Putin to prompt Trump to ponder another summit meeting. For now, Putin is flexing his own muscles, ordering a nuclear drill in northwestern Russia. As he becomes exasperated with Trump’s failure to propitiate him, Putin’s new credo when it comes to atomic weapons may be “drill, baby, drill.” Let’s hope it remains at just that.