Has Putin turned Trump into a Russia hawk?

No, President Trump wasn’t referring to Russian president Vladimir Putin when he talked at a White House luncheon today about a “stupid guy” and a “knucklehead.” But he did make it clear that his long-standing bromance with the Kremlin’s big cheese has turned out to be unrequited, much to his distress.  

Trump lamented that Putin’s talk about peace was so much rodomontade, amounting to more than a “nice phone call” followed by a bunch of missiles lobbed at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. It was Melania, he said, who had noted to him the inconsistency between Putin’s words and deeds. Perhaps Melania, more than anyone else, injected some iron into Trump’s previously anemic posture towards Moscow. As Melinda Haring, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, astutely pointed out to me, “the most interesting part of Trump’s remarks were the clarity with which the First Lady sees Russian aggression. She isn’t fooled.” Haring added, “Trump’s about-face is remarkable. He came into office skeptical about NATO and now he’s working elbow to elbow with Secretary General Mark Rutte to keep Ukraine supplied with state-of-the-art weapons.”

There’s always a chance, as Haring noted, that Trump might back down as “he gives Putin 50 more days to tempt him with more talks.” 

But as he bemoaned Putin’s obstinacy in pursuing territorial gains, Trump lavished praise on his previous antagonist – Europe. Europe, he said, showed “a lot of spirit” in defending Ukraine from Russia’s predatory designs. He added that a “strong Europe is a very good thing.” Only a week after cutting arms shipments off to Ukraine, Trump is now intent on selling them to Europe and potentially imposing secondary sanctions on Russia if Putin doesn’t sign a ceasefire in 50 days. “We’re going to be making top of the line weapons,” he said, “and sending them to NATO.” The hawks in Washington are jubilant, the MAGA restrainers, as they refer to themselves, aghast. Trump was supposed to recite the obsequies for liberal internationalism with Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson as the pallbearers. Now it’s neoconservatism redivivus. 

Is Putin about to get the collywobbles from Trump’s latest somersault? Not a chance. The Commissar has been intent all along on gobbling up Ukraine in toto. Hence the hundreds of thousands of dead Russian soldiers. Hence the incessant attacks on the Ukrainian civilian population that now include plans for up to 1,000 missiles and drones a day. Hence the unrelenting propaganda about Ukraine representing some kind of Nazi state. 

But Putin’s very bellicosity may have achieved the impossible, which is to transform Trump himself into a Russia hawk who could foil his plans. Already Trump has reveled in his bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move that his predecessors contemplated but never executed. Something appears to be changing. As The Spectator’s Freddy Gray recently observed, “Trump has turned on the peaceniks in his orbit.” He has indeed. It started with Iran. Now it’s proceeded to include Russia and Ukraine, the very conflict that he promised to end with 24 hours on the 2024 campaign trail. 

Trump has had a taste of what American power can accomplish abroad. He seems to like it. How long before he and Melania visit Kyiv to announce “Slava Ukraini?”