Where did Kamala most underperform in 2024?

Kamala’s car crash

By how much did Kamala Harris underperform – and Trump gain – in different county types compared with the 2020 presidential election?

Source: New York Times

Minority report

Kamala Harris lost important votes from ethnic minority voters in the 2024 presidential election. What was each cohort’s approval of Joe Biden’s actions while in the White House?

Black………………………………………….66%

Hispanic……………………………………..42%

Asian and Pacific Islanders……………42%

White………………………………………….33%

Source: Navigator Research

Diminishing returns

There are two upcoming special elections for congressional districts in Arizona and Texas. The Democrats have held both seats for decades but have had consistently falling vote shares in recent elections.

Source: Arizona Election Results; Texas Secretary of State

Misjudged metrics

Celebrated pollster Ann Selzer predicted that Kamala Harris would flip Iowa, winning the state by 47% to 44%. She was off by 16pts. Selzer wasn’t the first pollster to be led astray during a presidential campaign. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s chances of beating Trump were estimated to be between 71% and 98%. In 1980, the polling average underestimated Ronald Reagan’s margin by 7.2pts In 1948 the Chicago Tribune splashed with “Dewey Defeats Truman,” based on a Gallup poll which had stopped two weeks before voting day. In the meantime, millions of undecided voters flocked to Truman, who won. And in 1936, the Literary Digest sent out ten million straw ballots to gauge public support for the incumbent FDR and challenger Alf Landon. The quarter who responded led the Literary Digest to believe that Landon would beat FDR by 57% to 43%. In reality, FDR won by 62% to 37%.

This article was originally published in The Spectator’s May 2025 World edition.