Has French democracy been ‘executed?’

Marine Le Pen’s political career was ended on Monday when a Paris judge found her guilty of misusing European Union funds. She was sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, two of which are suspended and two will be served under an ankle bracelet. She was also fined €100,000 ($109,000) and disbarred from politics for five years.

Few anticipated such a severe sentence and it is one that will send shockwaves not just through France but across Europe. Also convicted alongside the leader of the National Rally were 24 other party members – including eight MEPs – all found guilty of channeling €2.9 million ($3.13 million) of EU money to their own party’s coffers.

The judge accepted that there had been no personal enrichment on the part of Le Pen or her co-accused, but a “system” had been set up in 2009 that ran until 2016.

In an interview with a Sunday newspaper this weekend, Le Pen had conveyed an air of confidence, saying she was not “feverish” about the possibility of being disbarred. Her senior lieutenants also appeared confident in recent interviews about the prospect of losing their leader. They were perhaps buoyed by an opinion poll that was published on Sunday, confirming Le Pen’s status as the strong favorite for the 2027 election. Surely a judge wouldn’t dare disqualify the leader of the most popular party in France.

But the judge gave a damning assessment of how the funds had been misused, even accusing Le Pen and the other defendants of subverting democracy in the process.

That statement may be treated with irony by the 11 million voters who cast their ballot for the National Rally in last year’s parliamentary election. Coming just two weeks after Cǎlin Georgescu was disqualified from running in the Romanian election, the judgment will also reinforce the impression among a growing number of Europeans that it is the EU elite subverting democracy.

There will be little gloating among Le Pen’s political opponents in France. Le Pen may have been toppled, but her party has not, and her no. 2, Jordan Bardella, will now likely be the presidential candidate. He is young, but in 2027 he will be 31; if Macron was elected president in his thirties, then why not Bardella? He reacted to the verdict by tweeting: “Today, it is not just Marine Le Pen who is being unjustly condemned: it is French democracy that is being executed.”

Expect to see more, too, of Marion Maréchal, Le Pen’s niece, who is ideologically aligned with the conservative views of both Giorgia Meloni and J.D. Vance.

France’s Prime Minister, Francois Bayrou (who last year was acquitted on similar charges of misusing EU funds) admitted recently that if Le Pen was disbarred, there would be “a risk of an impact on public opinion.” One of his ministers, Aurore Bergé, spoke on Sunday of electoral “repercussions” in the event Le Pen is banned.

There may be other more immediate repercussions. Le Pen’s party could join the left in bringing a motion of no confidence in Bayrou’s coalition government. They did it in December, to topple Michel Barnier, but this year she has been more conciliatory. Not now.

Le Pen may be gone, but her party will probably benefit from this judgement. The anger of her 11 million voters is likely to go from simmering to seething in the days and weeks ahead.  Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, reacted to the verdict by tweeting “Je Suis Marine.”

France may not have heard the last of that battle cry.