How Putin played Trump like a fiddle

And so it begins. Welcome to the first episode of the latest season of Putin’s Theater of Fugazi – the longest-running drama in global geopolitics. The first takeaway from yesterday’s nearly two-hour phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin seems, at first glance, like a positive one. Putin conceded, in principle, strong support for a ceasefire. And in practice, he conceded its first element: a moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure, issuing orders immediately after the call to halt imminent attacks.

Fundamentally, though, Putin is merely playing the role of a willing participant in the peace process. In reality, Tuesday’s Trump-Putin phone call simply raised the curtain on what promises to be a long and masterful display of stalling tactics.

Was the moratorium on striking energy infrastructure the first step toward peace? In one sense, yes. Russia has spent years pounding Ukraine’s electrical substations, power plants, gas pipelines and transformer stations – crippling the country’s industry, periodically paralyzing its rail network and plunging millions of civilians into cold and darkness. Ukraine, for its part, has scored some of the war’s few significant counterstrikes by developing long-range drones capable of blowing up oil refineries, gasoline storage units, and oil terminals deep inside Russia. A partial ceasefire in the air will spare Ukraine further damage to its critical infrastructure and allow the country to begin rebuilding its shattered power grid.

But Russia is the real winner. As early as February 2024, Russia imposed a six-month ban on the export of refined petroleum products due to repeated Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. In just the past few days, Ukrainian strikes have sent giant fireballs billowing over Astrakhan, Krasnodar, Samara and the Moscow oil refinery, which supplies 50 percent of the capital’s gasoline. Yes, it was the Ukrainians who first proposed a limited ceasefire in the skies. But a ceasefire that prevents Kyiv from continuing one of its few strategically successful tactics while allowing Russia free rein to strike non-energy targets in Ukraine is cold comfort.

Here, Putin’s cold cunning is on full display. By lifting the phrase “30-day ceasefire” from the original proposal and transplanting it into a framework that benefits the Kremlin while disadvantaging Kyiv, Putin allowed Trump to claim a victory while, in reality, securing one for himself.

“We agreed to an immediate ceasefire on all energy and infrastructure,” Trump wrote on social media. “With an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a complete ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible war between Russia and Ukraine.” Even as Trump posted those words, Iranian-made Russian drones rained down on central Kyiv and Sumy – just not on energy infrastructure.

Trump claimed he had a “very good and productive” conversation with Putin. In reality, Putin played Trump like a fiddle. The two men agreed to form a contact group that would meet soon at a Middle Eastern location to discuss detailed proposals. Another home run for Putin. He gets to bury negotiations in committee for months while maintaining the appearance of constructive engagement.

The first item on the contact group’s agenda, according to a White House statement, will be negotiations on the “implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.” That’s also a win for Putin. Ukraine has no remaining navy – but it has done a remarkable job of sinking nearly half the capital ships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including its flagship, the heavy cruiser Moskva, with missile strikes. Russia also exports a significant amount of its oil through the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. A ceasefire at sea is a major advantage for Moscow, which has everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Thorny issues remain, and the Kremlin’s readout made it clear that Putin laid out his hardline demands. The Kremlin called for “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence to Kyiv” during any full ceasefire period – along with a halt to Ukraine’s mobilization of new recruits. Putin also reiterated his demand for a commitment to keeping Kyiv out of NATO, the “demilitarization” of Ukraine through restrictions on its armed forces, and recognition of Russia’s control over the five regions Moscow has annexed since 2014.

These are tough conditions for Trump to swallow. But once again, Putin’s strategic skill came into play. The Kremlin signaled strong agreement that Iran should never be allowed the capability to strike Israel. Possible joint projects to exploit Arctic resources were discussed, along with vague business opportunities for American companies in Russia. By shifting the focus to a broader global picture, impresario Putin sought to frame Ukraine as just one detail in a vast landscape of potential geopolitical collaboration.

Trump sees talks as a path to peace. Putin sees talks as a path to victory. Just as his invasion was diplomacy by other means, so his peace overtures are war by other means.