Ukraine agrees to US-proposed month-long ceasefire with Russia

Ukraine has agreed to an American proposal for an immediate 30-day truce in the war against Russia. Kyiv’s decision to accept a month-long ceasefire follows nine hour-long talks with members of President Donald Trump’s administration in Saudi Arabia today. 

Making a statement this evening following the conclusion of the talks, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the “ball is now in Russia’s court” to agree to the ceasefire. It would be “the best goodwill gesture” Moscow could provide, Rubio added. Confirming Rubio’s announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — who didn’t take part in today’s discussion — declared that “Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step.”

Zelensky elaborated that the US truce plan would be for a “complete ceasefire,” not only including a pause on aerial and naval combat, but also “along the entire front line.” It is up to America now, he said, to convince the Russians to agree to the truce too.

There were more immediate benefits to Ukraine from today’s meeting — notably America’s agreement to resume military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Since his Oval Office spat with Zelensky two weeks ago, Trump had placed significant pressure to come to the negotiating table and prove to him that they are serious about finding a peaceful solution to the conflict. To force their hand, military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine was stopped by the US last week. America’s reversal on this suggests the Ukrainian delegation has been successful in proving that they are meeting Trump’s requirements.

The outcome of today’s meeting will, nevertheless, be viewed with trepidation in Ukraine. America’s plan to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine now relies on Russia complying — something which is far from guaranteed. Ahead of today’s talks, Zelensky had said he would be prepared to accept a truce consisting of “silence in the sky” — a ban on the use of missiles, drones and bombs — and “silence at sea,” halting military operations in the Black Sea. The reason a ceasefire along Ukraine’s front line wasn’t proposed was logistical — at over 600 miles long, this would make policing such a truce extremely difficult.

For many months now, Russia has stated that it is ready for peace — something Trump has also repeatedly parroted. Nevertheless, Moscow’s continued bombardment of Ukraine and advances in the east have suggested otherwise.

The Kremlin has yet to comment on this evening’s announcement. But even if Moscow were now to agree to the truce, there is no guarantee they would stick to it: a 36-hour ceasefire agreed between the two sides to mark Orthodox Christmas on January 6, 2023 was broken by the Russian army in under two hours.

If Russia ignores — or refuses — the American ceasefire proposal, the ball will then be in Trump’s court as to what to do next. He could either make good on his threat to impose further sanctions on Russia, or drop Ukraine as a hopeless cause. Either way, we won’t have to wait long to find out.