Will the support for Keir Starmer last?

When Donald Trump addressed Congress last week, he declared he was “just getting started.” His words will not have soothed politicians in the UK, who are still playing catch-up with the President’s first 43 days.

Last week, Trump proved yet again that he is the biggest force in British politics. His blow-up with Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, threats of a trade war and the disparaging comments by his vice president, J.D. Vance, about European countries that haven’t “fought a war in 30 or 40 years” dominated Westminster.

Amid all the noise, UK party leaders have been drawn into new positions. Despite his close links to Team Trump, Reform’s Nigel Farage has denounced Vance. Kemi Badenoch has had to slap down colleagues for mouthing off online after one Tory MP suggested Trump might be a Russian asset. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer seems to be becoming the unlikely hero of the hour.

Since winning the election, Starmer has had little in the way of good press. But in the past week, this has started to change. As the negotiations around a Ukraine-Russia peace deal turned fraught, the Prime Minister has emerged as — in the words of one minister — “an adult in the room.” His visit to the White House went without a hitch, a success that was highlighted the next day when Zelensky’s meeting tipped into disaster. Since then, Starmer has attempted to act as a “bridge” between the US and Ukraine as he works with European leaders to try to get peace talks back on track. 

In Westminster, a rally-round-the-flag effect is under way. In the Commons chamber on Monday, Starmer won cross-party praise. The SNP’s Stephen Flynn commended his performance and the former foreign secretary James Cleverly declared that Starmer had “not really put a foot wrong.”

Voters have noticed this. According to the group More in Common, Starmer now leads Farage by six points on the question of who would make the better prime minister. His approval rating has hit a three-month high (though at -28 that’s still not saying much). “We are one whole point ahead of Reform,” notes an excited Labour MP.

Starmer’s supporters had better not get too carried away. History shows that an international crisis tends to lead to initial support back home: the problem is that rarely lasts. Boris Johnson’s government experienced great popularity at the start of the Covid pandemic. After 9/11, Tony Blair was lavished with praise for his unwavering support for America — but it was that support that led to the Iraq war and his eventual undoing. Blair ultimately paid a price for appearing more interested in foreign affairs than domestic issues. In Downing Street, civil servants already complain that the Starmer government struggles to do more than one thing at any time.

There are also fundamental issues that no amount of diplomacy can fudge. The post-Suez foreign policy settlement that the UK will never choose between the US and Europe looks precarious. Despite Starmer’s successful charm offensive, Trump is nevertheless an unpredictable ally. No. 10 was caught off-guard this week by the White House’s decision to withdraw aid to Ukraine. Just hours before, Starmer had told MPs in the Commons that “as I understand it, that is not their position.”

In Downing Street, aides take heart from the fact that Starmer can get Trump on the phone. The two spoke briefly before the official aid announcement. This week the defense secretary John Healey will go to Washington for a visit which will include a meeting with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth. There has also been work behind the scenes to persuade Zelensky to walk back from comments he made in his Oval Office meeting and to praise Trump in a statement on social media. Attempts to control both Zelensky and some European leaders’ public comments are seen as key to keeping a lid on simmering tensions and not further aggravating the Trump administration.

The extent to which Starmer can influence the White House is limited. The blueprint of Starmer and Emmanuel Macron’s peace plan is for a ceasefire in the sky that could be monitored from afar. Then, in a second stage, British and French soldiers could be deployed to patrol the borders as part of a “coalition of the willing.” They could be joined by soldiers from other European countries as well as Australia, Turkey and even the Middle East. The hope is that this would be a force Vladimir Putin could not mess with, though Putin himself could take a different view if the US is missing in action.

The practicalities of sending troops to Ukraine are tricky, not least given Britain’s depleted armed forces. The Prime Minister is also yet to be guaranteed a security backstop from the US. “Without a security backstop you cannot send British soldiers,” says one senior Conservative. Some in Labour are worried that it might be a hard sell. “I can see the Reform party advert now: ‘Starmer can’t control UK borders, but he will send your boys to protect Ukraine’s,’” says one MP.

Others worry that the diplomatic charm offensive will soon run out of road. Starmer managed to woo Trump in Washington by presenting him with an invitation for an “unprecedented” second state visit. But that visit already looks as though it will be hard to pull off. Charles is, after all, Canada’s head of state, and given Trump’s actions both in terms of rhetoric and the threat of further tariffs, this puts the palace in an uncomfortable position. Then there’s the cost.

For now, Starmer has support from across the house. But the decision to cut aid to fund the military has already riled Labour’s soft left. Yet the upcoming spending review is likely to be so painful that the aid cut will be looked back on as the easy bit. Rachel Reeves plans to slash welfare, reform the NHS and crack down on the civil service with several billions earmarked in spending cuts. “I’m not sure there’s any good news — we just keep slashing everything,” says a government source. For many in Labour, this is not why they came into politics, especially since the party was elected on the promise to spend more on public services. “There will be a tipping point,” says one Labour advisor. “And it’s not that far away.” For Starmer, the cheers could be short-lived.