Europe should be careful in wishing for their own Trump

When I visited Toronto with a UK delegation last winter, conversation focused on the issues of immigration, housing and inflation that were contributing to the unpopularity of Justin Trudeau, who finally announced his resignation as prime minister last month. The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House was the slumbering python in the chandelier above the conference table: I sensed our hosts preferred not to think about how bad it might turn out to be.

Well, now they know. In response to Trump’s declaration of 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods, plus 10 percent on imported energy, Trudeau retorted with tariffs on many billions worth of US products. That would have brought instant price rises on both sides, chaos for US auto factories to which Canada is a major components supplier, and problems for northern US cities and states that rely on Canadian electricity. No doubt all sorts of lobbyists bent the ears of those closest to the president to persuade him to offer Trudeau a “one-month pause.” But the trouble has barely begun.

The Canadians, as I wrote after my trip, are “courteous, modest, serious folk” who are also key western allies in defense and intelligence. Trump’s gibe that they could avoid border strife by becoming the fifty-first state is as mad as it is insulting. His beef with Mexico has substance insofar as it responds to uncontrolled immigration and drug flows; his braggadocio towards China is par for the course; his antics on Greenland and the Panama Canal are sideshows. But irrational hostility towards Canada is in a different category.

Trump fans say he always does deals by opening with a shock gambit, then edging towards a real objective. Maybe. But if he’s prepared to cause global trade mayhem as his first move, he’s even more dangerous than his detractors thought, and not just to close neighbors. European commentators of the “Why can’t we have visionary mavericks like Trump?” persuasion, seduced by his pro-business, anti-woke agenda, should be careful what they wish for.