DOGE hasn’t been the success supporters initially believed

There were high hopes when Donald Trump announced plans for a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in mid-November. Led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, DOGE was portrayed as a gift to smaller, more efficient government advocates through fewer regulations and a restructured government.

“It will become, potentially, the Manhattan Project of our time,” boasted Trump at the time. “Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of DOGE for a very long time.”

Trump seemed to picture Musk and Ramaswamy as a two-headed monster, ripping to shreds bureaucracy through “advice and guidance” along with an “entrepreneurial approach to government.”

A more grandiose statement came from Musk who vowed to find and eliminate $2 trillion in wasteful government spending.

Trump remained effusive in his praise of DOGE, loftily promising, “I am confident they will succeed!”

DOGE, a play on the virtual currency Musk loves, hasn’t been the success conservatives and Trump supporters initially believed. It’s modeled after a similar program in Argentina put in place after the election of Javier Milei. So far, the government has privatized its metallurgical firm IMPSA, which has $576 million in debt.

Ramaswamy praised Milei-style cuts last month. Musk praised Milei for setting an example for “the rest of the world.”

The first rumbling of trouble came when Musk halved his $2 trillion in cuts declaration in early January.

Then Trump made DOGE a White House agency with a focus on “modernizing federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.”

Ramaswamy lasted three days as DOGE co-head before running back to Ohio for a rumored gubernatorial run. There’s speculation he clashed with Musk on what was more important: spending cuts or cutting regulations and bureaucracy, but nothing was confirmed.

“DOGE seems to be falling apart already, so I don’t know what they’re going to do,” said Dr. Veronique de Rugy at the Mercatus Center.

At the core of DOGE’s problem is its mission.

“The idea that you can make government efficient, like a private business, is a nonsensical notion,” said Dr. Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. He was President Reagan’s privatization guru while on the Council of Economic Advisers.

Hanke argued the only way to get rid of a “bloated, inefficient government” is to slash unneeded bureaus and agencies. “You shrink the balance sheet by selling assets and using the sales revenues to pay down the national debt. By doing this, DOGE would shrink and restructure the government,” he told me.

Trump and Musk’s idea of a more efficient government isn’t new.

Past American presidents have made or proposed changes to the government’s structure.

The most famous were the Hoover Commissions, chaired by former president Herbert Hoover. Put together in 1947 and 1953 by Presidents Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, they submitted almost 600 recommendations to improve efficiency — including privatization of certain groups.

Eisenhower said in 1955 the government “should not compete with its citizens.”

Perhaps the most successful reorganization came during the Reagan administration.

The Grace Commission issued 2,478 recommendations it believed would save the government over $424 billion in three years and $10.5 trillion by 2000. (You can thank the Grace Commission for complaints about the Defense Department spending $600 for a toilet seat.)

Unfortunately, said Hanke, who was part of the Grace Commission, most of the “excellent recommendations” were ignored by Congress. This included $88 billion in entitlement reform — something the Democrat-led Congress avoided.

Reagan was able to enact some Grace Commission recommendations, saving more than $100 million, according to Citizens Against Government Waste. The rest had to be enacted by Congress, which wasn’t going to happen.

Congress’s inaction didn’t surprise Hanke. “The Congress has no incentive to address government efficiency. Members of Congress incur no costs if the government is laden with waste, fraud and abuse.”

According to the Reason Foundation, the government’s decision to be more efficient has saved taxpayer dollars. Despite the efficiency push, the federal government remains the largest banker, homeowner, insurer and bus and train operator — a disappointing result for those who believe in smaller, weaker government.

There’s a belief among classical liberal and libertarian economists that DOGE could be much better.

Hanke wants to see privatization “front and center. The federal government now accounts for about 22.3 percent of [Gross Domestic Product].” His target is 15 percent of GDP — something the Clinton administration almost hit at 17.5 percent.

Dr. Johan Norberg from the Cato Institute agreed. “It is not enough to combat waste or make the government more efficient,” he wrote in an email.

Norberg argued the US needed to go further than efficiency projects and look at entitlement reform. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, mandatory expenses — including Social Security and Medicare — make up 60 percent of the federal budget. That’s not sustainable for future generations, let alone this one.

But any kind of reform, noted Norberg, comes at a price. “Mostly, likely it will be painful.”

Trump has promised not to touch Social Security and Medicare, which means more spending and debt.

“I wish DOGE well, but I wouldn’t bet on their success,” said Norberg.

Instead of becoming Trump’s Manhattan Project, DOGE likely becomes an exercise of Camus-like absurd. Big promises, but little gain.