A fragile peace in Gaza

The signs are not good. The much-anticipated Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal is a horribly complicated construct which seems almost designed to fail. The three-phase plan, which is due to start today, will stop the fighting for forty-two days. During that time, Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip’s most populated regions and allow much needed aid convoys at the Rafah border to enter the devastated area. In return, Hamas will release thirty-three Israeli hostages, and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

The two sides will continue talking in the hope of securing the deal’s next two phases, which would free the remaining hostages and make the ceasefire permanent. 

The prize for success is the end of a fifteen-month conflict launched by Hamas, which inflamed the Middle East and left many in the West wondering if we were about to witness world war three. But the plan contains a lot of moving parts and they will all need to work seamlessly if the eventual goal of a more permanent ceasefire is to be achieved. One rocket fired from Gaza into Israel, one shot from an Israeli sniper, one simple mistake in a region fraught with tension could easily see the wheels of the plan fall off in dramatic fashion.

Unfortunately, especially for the Palestinians trapped inside the ruins of the Gaza Strip, there appear to be numerous actors on both sides only too willing to see the fighting continue, irrespective of the cost.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already told Israelis that he reserves the right to resume the fight if the deal falls apart. He is under pressure from the extreme right of Israeli politics to do so anyway when the last Israeli hostage is eventually released. In Gaza, Hamas, although a shadow of its former self, has probably recruited more fighters than those killed by the Israelis, according to secretary of state Antony Blinken.

Marc Lynch, a professor of political science at George Washington University and the director of its Middle East Studies program, is pessimistic about the prospect of a successful outcome. He told Foreign Affairs: 

In Israel, there are many people who would like to see this war prosecuted indefinitely. Maybe they want to keep northern Gaza as a permanent buffer zone. Maybe they want to depopulate it and resettle it completely. Maybe they want to try to completely destroy Hamas, as Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu originally promised. Or maybe they want perpetual war as cover for aggressive actions elsewhere, such as in the West Bank. On the Palestinian side, there are plenty of opportunities for spoiler violence by hardliners, by militant factions who don’t like the way things are going, and by people who just want revenge for all the horrible things that have been done to them. If such violence occurs, the Israelis won’t respond in a positive fashion. Even if such violence doesn’t happen, Israel could claim they have evidence Hamas is reorganizing in ways that they say violate the ceasefire. They would then return to bombing. So I think anybody looking at this agreement can see how fragile it is.

At least 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, possibly many more, and it is now accepted that at least half of these were civilians — not Hamas fighters — including women and children. Thousands more Palestinians have been maimed, paralyzed, blinded and left with wounds from which they may never fully recover. The level of destruction is now so huge that it is difficult to quantify.

We will all learn much more when independent journalists are allowed to enter the Gaza Strip and report back on the true cost of the war.

To help secure the peace, Israel should allow aid, food, water and medicine to enter Gaza unfettered. Emergency hospitals need to be created, schools should be opened and a sense of order restored, all of which will give the ceasefire a solid foothold. Reconstruction should begin as soon as possible — once the unexploded ordnance littering the strip has been removed. The rebuilding of Gaza is key. Palestinians in Gaza are much more likely to reject the nihilists of Hamas if they can envisage a future where there is real hope.

A survey conducted by Arab World for Research and Development suggested that just 16 percent of Gazans would vote for Hamas if there were elections to the Palestinian parliament. What is needed — and what almost half of Palestinians want now — is some sort of government of national unity that would almost certainly have to include members of Hamas, as well as those parties committed to a two-state solution with Israel. That is going to be difficult for Israel to swallow given the tragic murder of over a thousand Israelis on October 7.

Peace negotiations are always difficult. Look at the Good Friday Agreement, for example.  To drive that peace deal through, the UK government agreed to allow IRA murderers to walk free from prison — some of whom had completed just two years of a life sentence — cheering and punching the air and greeted like heroes by adoring fans. But the prize, so far, has been a lasting, albeit imperfect, peace.

The continuation of war or a state of non-peace does not bode well for Israel. It is probably more internationally isolated now than ever before. But key to all of this will be Donald Trump.