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Donald Trump isn’t back in the White House yet, but already his victory is being felt across the world. Greenland is pondering the prospect of an invasion after the president-elect refused to rule it out during a Mar-a-Lago press conference. In Canada, the last western leader from the days before Trump has just exited the stage. Justin Trudeau, the one-time liberal hero, quit earlier this week in the face of tanking ratings.
Nick Clegg, the former Liberal Democrat leader, is out at Meta and the billionaires of Silicon Valley are bracing themselves for what comes next. Mark Zuckerberg has announced sweeping changes (including an end to fact-checkers) in response to what he called “a cultural tipping point.” The last time Trump won an election, Facebook’s response was to increase censorship in a bid to stop a repeat. Now it wants to join the party.
The wave of change has also started to take hold in the UK, where Westminster politicians have spent the past week trading barbs about the “grooming gangs” scandal as a direct result of Elon Musk’s tweets. “No. 10 thought they’d begin the new term talking about the NHS,” says an opposition aide. “Now they look clueless and on the wrong side of public opinion.”
As Trump returns, politicians and voters alike feel emboldened to say the unsayable. “There’s been a vibe shift,” notes a senior Whitehall figure. In London, young thinktankers have a new incentive to share their hard truths: they might be so lucky to get a reply or “like” from Musk. This week, Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary and close ally of Kemi Badenoch, declared on X (where else?) that Musk’s purchase of the platform in 2022 may have “saved humanity.” It’s true that it has become a news source that can compete with — and overpower — parts of the legacy media.
Leaders looking to benefit from the shift know they must challenge the old assumptions. “It’s time to question the cozy liberal consensus and examine economic nationalism and social taboos,” says a Badenoch ally.
Trump’s meeting with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni last week at Mar-a-Lago (orchestrated by Musk, naturally) means she is seen as a potential power-broker between the White House and Europe. Left-wing leaders on the continent are crying foul — accusing Musk of tampering with democracy through his interventions on domestic politics.
The problem is particularly acute in the UK. Musk — whose grandmother was British — sees the UK as the Athens to America’s Rome. His intervention on the subject of grooming gangs is leading to a wider debate about multiculturalism, integration and British identity. As Keir Starmer struggles to grasp the topic, both Badenoch and Nigel Farage are fighting to control the narrative.
Musk has called for the release of Tommy Robinson, the activist jailed for contempt of court. After Farage condemned Robinson, Musk publicly questioned whether he has what it takes to lead Reform in an online post. His tweet took Farage’s inner circle by surprise — but they’re not too worried. They see it as a wrinkle they can iron out.
‘Well, politics looks set to be fully insane again,’ concludes a former minister
For the Tories, the Farage-Musk crack-up is a reason to feel optimistic. “We are enjoying Musk landing punches on Farage,” says one Badenoch ally. “Not many can.” However, Farage plans to use this month’s inauguration in Washington — where he is likely to attend the various evening balls as well as the official swearing in — to re-ingratiate himself with the incoming president’s allies. “He’s known Donald a lot longer than Musk,” says one colleague playing down the idea of a rift.
Meanwhile, Badenoch is looking across the Anglosphere for inspiration. During the first shadow cabinet meeting since Christmas, she encouraged her team to look to the rise of other right-wing parties, such as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party in Canada and the Liberals in Australia. In what was pitched as the first of a series of strategies for the new year, Badenoch unveiled her “spring plan.”
Assembled ministers were given an in-depth overview of the plan for the first half of this year, focusing on how to “rebuild and renew.” Badenoch said her chief of staff, Lee Rowley, who led the presentation, had “unleashed his inner management consultant” as the assembled ministers were given a lengthy presentation. The aim: to rebuild trust with British people and then rebuild the party. By showing their values and principles, the idea is that the Tories will show that they are under new management. However, some attendees were left wondering how best to do that: “What is our Clause IV moment?”
For Starmer, there is too much fire-fighting to do to focus on strategy. His comments defending Home Office minister Jess Phillips from Musk’s criticism landed well within the party, but there is a nervousness that they could further antagonize Trump’s team. The hope in Starmer’s camp is that Musk is not representative of the administration as a whole, and that cooler heads will prevail — such as Trump’s chief of staff Susie Wiles, who met Morgan McSweeney late last year. Wiles has said she will have no time for ego and one-man shows in the White House.
The Foreign Office, alongside Nos. 10 and 11, is preparing responses on Ukraine and trade for different scenarios. The appointment of Elbridge Colby to Trump’s foreign policy team came as a relief to Labour as he has spoken positively about David Lammy, the foreign secretary. Yet the potential for trouble remains. There have been reports this week that Labour could even reassess intelligence-sharing if Trump echoes Musk in his criticism of the UK, but No. 10 has steered strongly away from such suggestions. Even the mention of the idea is dangerous in the face of Republican skepticism over Labour. “We can’t afford a war of words on security,” says a government advisor.
That extends to defense. Trump has said that he expects NATO members to up their donations to 5 percent of GDP. “That means the realistic amount is 3 percent at least,” says a former defense secretary. “By the next NATO summit, with Trump there, it will be the main focus — and that is a nightmare for Rachel Reeves.” The chancellor has little room for spending after borrowing costs this week surpassed their level after Liz Truss’s mini-budget. “Well, politics looks set to be fully insane again,” concludes a former minister.
