Is Britain really going to get a trade deal with the US?

Donald Trump loves Britain and loves the King; therefore Britain can expect a trade deal. That is the gist of J.D. Vance’s interview with UnHerd. Whether that means anything in practice is another matter. Evidently, the President’s love and affection was not enough to spare Britain from a 10 percent tariff on exports to the US (and 25 percent for cars). While Trump changed his mind last week and delayed most tariffs for 90 days there was no delay to the introduction of the 10 percent tariffs, which will apply to all countries. All that happened as a result of last Thursday’s pullback was that Britain lost its relative advantage. It is now back in the same boat as the European Union and most other countries.

Trump’s problem now is one of trust. The prospect of a UK-US trade deal has been dangled in front of us before, during his first presidency. A “trade deal” now seems to mean the prospect of being relieved from tariffs which were dumped on us only a few days ago. That is no great privilege, especially as it will certainly mean concessions on Britain’s part. The infamous chlorinated chicken will be back on the menu.

Today’s development does, however, raise a number of issues. It suggests that using a state visit to flatter Trump is absolutely the right thing to do. Vance’s mention of the royal family shows that the president values the pageantry of a royal visit. Keir Starmer deserves credit for his unprecedented invitation for a second state visit for a US president, when many in his party are dead against any kind of advance to Trump.

Secondly, the reaction to Vance’s interview shows once again the inconsistent attitudes towards free trade on the part of many British Remainers. The leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey has damned Vance’s suggestion of a trade deal, saying that the government should reject it. Why is it that the Remain lobby think that free trade with the EU is the cornerstone of civilization, without which Britain cannot thrive as a nation, yet fear the concept of free trade with the US?

True, Trump would not be seeking a trade deal out of the good of his heart; he wants what is good for the US. But then the same is true of the EU and its member states when they sit down to negotiate a trade deal.

For years during our EU membership we were subject to all manner of regulations which were not in our self-interest. Remainers like Davey accepted all that, yet somehow can’t cope with the idea of making concessions to the US.

One thing is for sure: if we are not prepared to make concessions on matters like chlorine-washed chicken – an EU protectionist device dressed up as a health and safety measure – Britain can forget free trade with the US. Indeed, Britain might not even retain its 10 percent carve-out.

Free trade always involves working against the interests of some of your native businesses, without which you will get nowhere. That would be true whoever was US president, even if Trump is an especially difficult character.